News Analysis: Trump's next real issue: voters doubt his leadership credibility

After Donald Trump defeated 16 other candidates in a what looked like a strong Republican field, the next real issue facing the presumptive presidential nominee of the GOP is to prove he is a trustworthy leader, experts said.

Although the GOP is not yet united to support the bombastic New York real estate billionaire who flip-flops on his policy stances, the split would not cause real damage to his campaign, they said.

The establishment Republicans who were rankled by his fiery rhetoric on trade, immigration and Muslims in a primary election campaign would eventually line up behind him in the general election, they predicted.

LEADERSHIP CREDIBILITY

"The real issue with Donald Trump is Donald Trump," said Allan Lichtman, an American political historian who teaches at American University in Washington D.C.

It is an open question whether Trump is the man voters want to trust with control of the American nuclear arsenal and of the American military, he told Xinhua.

The former reality TV star becomes the last one standing in the Republican race because he plays on Republicans' anger at their own party and taps into the fear of foreign influences and fear of violence to win over voters with his rhetoric to make America great again, experts said.

Although he seems like the most authentic candidate by speaking directly to the grievance in the Republican base, Trump, who has never held elective office, doesn't have a clear policy agenda, Prof. Lichtman said.

"Trump is running a personal campaign, not a policy campaign. He is no way consistently to figure out the policies ... He doesn't care about facts and he doesn't care about reversing himself," he said, citing Trump's about-face on the Muslim travel ban and minimum wage.

Trump, who has alarmed many with a call for barring all Muslims from entering the United States, demoted his proposed ban last week, saying it was "just a suggestion."

Also, he suggested early this month that he would be open to lifting the minimum wage, switching his previous primary campaign stance that the country could not afford to hike the current federal rate of 7.25 U.S. dollars per hour.

"The real issue with Donald Trump is not his policies, because you don't know what they are," Prof. Lichtman said. "Will he be a trustworthy leader? That is the issue with Trump."

Sharyn O'Halloran, professor of political economy and professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University, believed that whether Trump could be viewed as credible to moderate voters will be the decisive factor in a two-horse race with Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee.

Trump, who is tapping directly into the anti-establishment sentiment by speaking their language, has no chance to win at this stage, she told Xinhua, adding that to increase his probabilities to win, "he would have to prove to moderate voters that in fact he is a credible presidential candidate."

"He will have to change policy stances; he has to change the way he presents himself; he has to appeal to women," she said.

REPUBLICAN ENDORSEMENT

If Trump did so, it might help him reconcile with the establishment Republicans, who are still reluctantly coming to terms with the reality that Trump -- the brash real estate mogul many feared given his unpredictability and lack of discipline on the campaign trail -- becomes their party's standard bearer.

Out of five former Republican presidential nominees alive today, four -- Mitt Romney, former Presidents George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush, Bob Dole -- have either not endorsed Trump, or said they would not be attending the Republican National Convention in July, underlining the deep rift his candidacy has created within the GOP.

However, whether the Republican elite endorses him is not a matter of concern because Trump is the presidential candidate on the ticket, Prof. O'Halloran said.

The comments reflect the reality among Republicans on Capitol Hill that despite how disconcerted many are by the uncontrollable billionaire businessman, they realize they have a stake in the Republican standard bearer, not to mention they must recognize the will of GOP voters.

Otherwise they risk seeing another Democrat at the White House in at least four years to come.

Prof. Lichtman predicted that most of the Republicans would line up behind Trump, "not because they love Trump more, but because they love Hillary Clinton less."

"Because they realize the next president is going to appoint at least one, maybe three Supreme Court justices and set the course of the American law for the next 30 years. And they don't want Democrats to do that," he said.

"Very cynically, and I think quite immorally the Republicans are gonna line up behind Trump, even though they recognize that he would be very dangerous in the Oval Office," he added. Enditem