Rains curb fears of failed winter crops in Australia

Recent rains inundating Australia's prime east coast agriculture regions is adding favor to the nation's agricultural output expectations that had been blunted from predicted late start to the coming La Nina weather pattern.

Australia's bureau of meteorology has said there is a 70 percent chance much of Australia will experience a La Nina period and associated above-average rainfall as the strong El Nino weather system, which brought dry and drought conditions throughout the Asia Pacific, fades.

However local analysts feared the La Nina weather system, which typically follows an El Nino period, wouldn't arrive until late June, reducing the impact of higher rainfalls in areas already suffering from dry conditions during the critical crop sowing period.

Recent rains across Australia's key agriculture belts have given farmers a much needed short-term reprieve from the El Nino induced drought, with areas across many parts of inland Australia experiencing more than four times their average rainfall for the month of May over the past 24 hours.

Australia is now set up for its largest crop since the 2010-11 season with over three quarters of the cropping zones having planted their winter crops and now growing "under pretty good conditions", Mercardo grains analyst Andrew Whitelaw told Xinhua on Tuesday.

"It would not be surprising based on (official agriculture forecaster ABARES) planting estimates for Australia to see a 25-26 (million metric tonne) wheat crop, if conditions continued to improve," Whitelaw said.

Regions of western Victoria state and Queensland, which make up approximately 20 percent of Australian production, are still enduring poor conditions, but can utilizes shorter varieties and water saving technologies when conditions improve.

A bumper Australian crop however will only prolong a recovery in wheat prices that are already at record lows and suffering from ample global supply. Australia is the world's fourth largest wheat exporter.

Despite the good start, there is a downside risk with a La Nina weather system that's expected to intensify through spring, Commonwealth Bank of Australia agriculture commodities strategist Tobin Gorey told Xinhua.

"At some point, you want it to stop raining.... (La Nina) might cause complications towards the end," Gorey said.

Widespread rainfall is also aiding the rebuilding cattle socks after drought in key beef producing regions saw Aussie farmers slaughter animals at record levels.

"There is now adequate pasture on the ground," Whitelaw said.

"This will result in livestock producers retaining more stock on farm, in order to increase weight gains." Endit