Spotlight: Abe's visit to Russia no more than diplomatic maneuver

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe paid a quick and unofficial visit to Russia on Friday and held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which is but a diplomatic maneuver generating no progress on the four disputed pacific islands.

Before Abe's visit, the Japanese government mentioned several times that it wished the two countries would tackle the territorial dispute during the prime minister's visit. Abe himself said to Japanese media prior to his visit that he hoped to negotiate with Russia "patiently" so as to solve the territorial dispute and help to bring about a bilateral peace treaty.

"I will tenaciously tackle (the territorial issue). The issue cannot be resolved without direct talks between the leaders (of Japan and Russia)," Abe told a press conference in London on Thursday.

He also mentioned "the great potential in cooperation between Japan and Russia in economic and other areas." Yet, such cooperation can only happen within the context of a settlement of the territorial dispute and signing of a peace treaty.

According to Ruan Zongze, deputy chief of China Institute of International Studies, the positions by Japan and Russia on solving the territorial issue are contradictory -- Russia wants to sign a peace treaty before solving the territorial dispute, while Japan wishes to solve the territory issue before signing a peace treaty. It is impossible for a single "unofficial" visit to bridge so wide a gap in positions between the two countries.

"It's impossible for Japan to create conditions for signing a bilateral peace deal and solving the territorial dispute just by this (Abe's) visit," said Ruan.

Japan and Russia must have known the difficulty and sensitivity of the issue all too well, as they toned down Abe's visit as a working visit instead of an official one, showing the two sides did not hold too much expectation about tangible outcome of the meeting.

Then why did Abe choose to visit Russia at this time?

Experts believe Abe's visit had two goals.

Firstly, the visit was intended to amend ties with Russia and break the diplomatic predicament with neighboring countries.

"Since taking office, the Abe ministration has been increasingly hawkish in dealing with diplomatic affairs, resulting in a strained relationship with all neighboring countries, including Russia," said Zhou Yongsheng, a professor at China Foreign Affairs University.

Russia is now suffering from a weak economy, Japan, as this year's host country of the Group of Seven (G7) summit, plans to help Russia to return to the bloc in exchange for Russia's concessions on issues such as the territorial dispute.

Secondly and more importantly, the visit was intended to distract public attention and garner support for a victory in parliamentary election.

A series of Abe government's tough actions including enforcing the new security laws, and a persistent weak economy despite Abe's "three arrows" of monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reforms have both greatly angered the Japanese voters. Abe is now trying to play the diplomatic card to distract public attention and garner support for a victory in the parliamentary election in July, which Abe hopes will facilitate his bid to amend the Constitution, Zhou explained.

The 69th anniversary of the Japanese Constitution has come ahead of a key upper house election in this summer. If Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its small ruling partner the Komeito Party could win a two-thirds majority in the 242-member chamber, it will not hesitate to initiate a motion to amend the Constitution.

The timing of Abe's visit to Russia was also smart, said Wang Taiping, a foreign affairs researcher. With U.S. President Barack Obama's term coming to an end thus the U.S. diplomatic influence waning, and with both the U.S. and Russia softening attitudes on thorny issues such as Syria, Abe found it a good timing to pay a visit to Russia.

However, Japan's unilateral move to mend ties with Russia without America's consent might jeopardize its relations with the big ally, as Washington" does not approve the top-level contact between Russia and Japan," according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Abe's Russia visit is a diplomatic maneuver like a double-edged sword to Japan. Endi