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News Analysis: Trump could secure Republican nomination with victory in Indiana

Xinhua, May 4, 2016 Adjust font size:

U.S. Republican Party (GOP) front-runner Donald Trump could secure the nomination Tuesday night if he beats rival Senator Ted Cruz in a crucial primary in Indiana Tuesday, experts said.

The New York billionaire has had a tough battle with Cruz in recent weeks, after Florida Senator Marco Rubio dropped out of the race and made the contest into one between two fiercely competitive and outspoken candidates.

But while Cruz has won delegates in a number of states with substantial blocs of social conservatives and evangelicals, he has not matched Trump's wild popularity among many rank-and-file Republicans.

Indeed, Tuesday's contest in Indiana could well spell the end of Cruz's campaign if Trump wins the key state, where 57 delegates are at stake. Trump is shown to lead Cruz in Indiana.

"If Trump wins Indiana, he will be the GOP nominee," Brookings Institution's senior fellow Darrell West told Xinhua.

"Cruz is near the end of his rope. If he can't beat Trump in Indiana, it will doom his candidacy," West said.

As Trump is leading in other states such as New Jersey, California and West Virginia, an Indiana victory will give him the majority of delegates he needs, West said.

Trump needs to win 1,237 delegates to clinch the Republican nomination. He has won 996 delegates so far, far ahead of Cruz's 565.

In addition, public opinion has shifted in Trump's favor, as recent national surveys show that more than 80 percent of Republicans expect Trump to be the nominee based on his many primary victories.

"The Republican establishment cannot deny the nomination to a candidate who has demonstrated substantial public opinion support," West said.

He added that Cruz is hanging on because there is a thin pathway through which he can stop Trump. That would involve Cruz winning in Indiana and then using that victory to pull off an upset in California, where 172 delegates are at stake.

Such a scenario would keep Trump from having a majority of delegates, but that scenario seems unlikely given the outcomes of recent primaries, West noted.

Julian Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University said that if Trump wins Indiana, "we will still have to wait because it is unlikely Cruz will step down."

"His strategy revolves around a brokered convention not winning the nomination. But in reality Trump will be on the path to winning a first ballot victory," Zelizer told Xinhua.

Indeed, if no candidate wins the 1,237 delegates needed to grab the nomination, the rules state that a candidate will be chosen at the July GOP convention. Endit