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Commentary: China's stabilizing growth should be more than just reassuring

Xinhua, April 15, 2016 Adjust font size:

China's stabilizing economic growth as confirmed by official statistics released on Friday should be more than just a convincing reason for economists to be reassured about future prospects of the Chinese economy.

While challenges remain, the statistics confirmed an ongoing economic transition driven by robust high-tech and services sectors, and the stabilization of economic growth points to more room and therefore an easier path for China's structural reforms.

The economy grew by an annualized 6.7 percent in the first quarter, in line with both market expectations and the official full-year target range of 6.5 percent to 7 percent. More significantly, economists have been quick to notice robust growth in new growth drivers and the services sector.

The industrial sector grew by 5.8 percent, slower than the growth of 6.1 percent for last year but faster than the growth of 5.4 percent in the first two months of this year. In particular, the high-tech industries and the equipment and machinery manufacturing industries grew by 9.2 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, contributing a large portion of the growth.

The tertiary industries grew by 7.6 percent, showing that the services industry continues to be a bright spot in the Chinese economy.

It is nothing surprising, as statistics released earlier, such as trade statistics and the purchasing managers' index, have all shown signs of stabilization. The latest statistics only served to confirm them.

Looking back at the market sentiments over the last several months, it is obvious that the pessimism over China's economic prospects had been exaggerated. It once again shows that it is essential to look at the overall picture rather than just focus on a single aspect of China's vast economy.

The pessimism peaked back when there were worries about the markets over comments of some international investors. It should not be surprising for international investors to make pessimistic comments on the Chinese economy as some of them, especially speculators, stand to benefit from market volatilities.

China is trying to push through an economic transition from growth driven by investment and exports to growth led by consumption and domestic demand. It is natural for the economy to slow down to sustainable medium-high growth from extremely high growth -- amid external weakness.

China adopted an approach of encouraging economic restructuring with innovation and entrepreneurship while pushing through reforms, including systematically streamlining government procedures. Many of the traditional industries are being transformed in a process facilitated by high technologies. The excessive industrial capacity is being reduced.

It is fair to say that people have gradually started to accept the "new normal" of the Chinese economy, which means that China will be able to sustain growths of 6.5 percent to 7 percent over the long term, rather than the growth of above 10 percent that it had had in many years.

Challenges remain, particularly with the rising corporate debt. However, international organizations have recently raised their forecasts for the Chinese economy. The International Monetary Fund said the corporate debt, though a risk, does not warrant exaggerated concerns, and in its latest forecast, revised China's growth forecasts in 2016 and 2017 both by 0.2 percentage points, confirming the revision in market sentiment.

The latest numbers indicating a stabilization in growth should be reassuring as it leaves more room to carry out structural reforms that allow the market to play a decisive role in resource distribution.

Despite the ups and downs in market sentiment, China's economic resilience has always been underpinned by its strong fundamentals. This should be a reminder that the market is fickle and that economists and investors should not rush to be pessimistic. Endi