News Analysis: Why experts predict Italy's Renzi to face political uncertainty?

A year ago, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi was in a strong position: his approval levels were on the rise, his party had scored big wins in local and European elections that increased Italy's influence in the EU, the government's ambitious reform agenda was gaining traction, and there were signs the country was finally emerging from its long economic malaise.

Since then, events have conspired to cast the future of the Renzi government in doubt. How did it happen?

Experts say a variety of factors are working against Renzi's government.

The most high profile problem is the resignation of Federica Guidi, who had been minister for economic development. Guidi is alleged to have manipulated the country's 2016 budget to include a streamlined approval process for oil drilling that would economically benefit her partner. The charges were levied after Guidi was recorded bragging about the changes she helped usher in. The development is seen as a blow for Renzi, who has cast himself an honest reformer far removed from the cronyism and closed-door deal.

Another major problem is the lack of concrete results from Renzi's ambitious reform agenda.

Italy's economic growth has slowly improved during Renzi's two-year tenure as prime minister, but most economists attribute the improved situation to a weak euro currency that makes Italian exports cheaper and helps attract more tourists from beyond the euro-zone, and the low cost of oil that helps reduce the cost of transport and industrial production. Meanwhile, unemployment levels stubbornly remained high and the disposable income for most Italians remained flat.

The polling firm Opinioni reports that while Renzi's approval levels mostly rose for the first 15 months of his government, they have gradually eroded since the middle of last year.

"There was a period voters were hopeful but after a period of time they started to lament the lack of measurable results," Maria Rossi, Opinioni's co-founder, said in an interview.

According to Giuseppe Grilli, a professor at Roma Tre University and the director of the Political Dialogue publications, internal issues within Renzi's political party are creating problems for him. Renzi did not win an election to become prime minister: he was chosen after closed-door negotiations that resulted in predecessor Enrico Letta stepping down. Renzi's support within the party remains fractured, with younger party members in his corner but the old guard generally opposing him.

"Renzi has always had serious problems within his own party and in the current context they are becoming more serious," Grilli told Xinhua.

Alessandro Campi, an expert on the history of political thought at the University of Perugia and director of the Instituto di Politica, agreed. Campi said the lack of a mandate from his party weakens the prime minister's base.

"Renzi won the (prime minister's) job in Rome, but he does not have support from his party across the nation," Campi said in an interview. "He surrounded himself with people he knows and trusts, but that has prevented him from getting the party more involved in the government."

To a certain point, victories for Renzi's backers in local and regional elections and in elections for the European parliament have acted as de facto referenda on Renzi's government.

Another will be held in October, when the constitutional reform that will reshape parliament by downgrading the upper house of the legislative body is scheduled to take place.

But that does not remove the risk of a new set of elections that could turn out to be good or bad news for Renzi.

Campi said they are unlikely to take place before early in 2017, and until then Renzi will have to work to assure they help him strengthen his grip on power while an increasingly emboldened opposition will try to use the scandal involving Guidi and other issues to call for confidence votes that could force Renzi to risk the government's health to stay in power. Enditem