Spotlight: Ukraine faces possible power reshuffle, but no major political shifts

Ukraine is facing its first major power reshuffle in two years, as both the government and the parliament are moving towards dissolution due to internal differences about the country's future.

Although some observers fear a power change may deepen the country's crisis, the situation in general is under control and the possible overhaul is not expected to break the overall balance of power, and thus will not alter the country's political landscape.

GOVERNMENT DISSOLUTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN

Although the parliament failed to oust Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk and his government in a no-confidence motion in February, Yatsenyuk's support shrank in March for a lack of effort to settle the turmoil in the country.

The government was also accused of being unable to quickly form a new ruling coalition to keep the state institutions functioning smoothly and reluctant to speed up the promised reforms, such as tackling corruption and stabilizing the economy.

However, local analysts remain split on whether Yatsenyuk would resign. Many believe his retirement is just a matter of time as even some cabinet members have begun to publicly voice distrust on him in recent weeks.

"In the current circumstances, Yatsenyuk's resignation is inevitable, because nobody wants to work with him," said Yury Syrotyuk, head of Ukrainian Studio of Strategic Studies, an analytical center.

Yet other experts say Yatsenyuk has a good chance of keeping his seat, partly because of the difficulty in finding a replacement accepted both by the government and Western partners, on whom Ukraine has relied to maintain its financial stability.

Some also say that after the failure of the no-confidence motion, Yatsenyuk's resignation, voluntary or not, has become unlikely.

"We are facing a game of nerves and it is very difficult to predict how long it would last ... While the politicians will be torn between one deadlock and another, Yatsenyuk has all chances to remain the prime minister," said Vadim Karasev, director of the Institute of Global Strategies.

PARLIAMENT FACES UNCERTAIN FUTURE

The situation of the Ukrainian parliament also remains uncertain. Experts say that with the withdrawal of the two parties -- Samopomich and the Radical, the defacto collapse of the ruling coalition last month has created chaos in parliament. Lawmakers, once seeing each other as ideological rivals, are trying to join hands to remain in power.

Parliament Speaker Volodymyr Groysman has said the ruling alliance is still alive because some lawmakers have not tendered their official requests to quit the coalition.

Experts say the move means the ruling Solidarity Party, loyal to President Petro Poroshenko, is not ready for early elections and will be struggling with its ally, the People's Front, to look for partners to form a new majority.

The Solidarity Party and the People's Front have initiated dialogues with non-aligned lawmakers, hoping to draw them into the new alliance. However, the chances of success look slim given the differences between the two parties and independent lawmakers over economic, security and foreign policies.

"The current crisis could end up only in the formation of a new government, but there will be no parliamentary elections. There are no preconditions for it because the voting depends on Poroshenko," said Oles Dony, head of the Kiev-based Center for Studies of Political Values.

"If the parliament reaches a stalemate and would not adopt the needed laws, Poroshenko would have no other choice but to call early elections. Voting is inevitable when the parliament has no majority," said Sergiy Taran, head of the Center for Sociological and Political Studies.

NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED

Experts say that a possible dissolution of the government and the parliament does not mean that Ukraine's situation has gone out of control or another upheaval is coming, as the possible overhauls are not expected to bring new major forces onto the Ukrainian political arena who will shake the balance of power in the parliament and change the country's policy direction.

First of all, the cabinet is not expected to have a major reshuffle, as its key members, such as the deputy prime minister, interior minister, justice minister, energy minister and social policy minister, are widely expected to retain their posts. Some observers also predict that the eonomy and trade minister would be picked up from the current deputy ministers.

Analysts note that the new cabinet will not include members from the opposition parties, as the top two parliamentary forces have rejected coalition talks with these parties.

Experts also say whoever becomes the next prime minister will be loyal to the president and continue to carry out economic reforms and forge closer relations with the West.

Recent polls also predict that in case of early elections, the majority of voters will favor the political forces that support closer ties with Europe and reforms. The current administration has vowed to do both.

Possible candidates for the prime minister's post favored by Poroshenko, such as Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko and Lviv Mayor Andriy Sadovyi, have little chance to get the job for lacking support in parliament, whereas Parliament Speaker Groysman has a better chance to become the next prime minister as he enjoys the support of the biggest party, the Solidarity Party.

"Early parliamentary elections will change nothing because we will get the same stalemate as we have now. The parliament will consist of seven factions, its composition will be more polarized, and the potential coalition will be practically the same as the current one," said Vladimir Fesenko, director of the Penta Center for Applied Political Studies. Endi