News Analysis: Too early to discount Australian crops despite downpours not reaching agriculture regions

Australia's winter grain crop should not be ruled-out despite rainfall being isolated to the coastal regions as increased production efficiencies in the world's fourth largest wheat exporter and the potential La Nina weather system allow for a later season sow.

An area of convergence occurred over the Sydney region overnight, dumping 94 millimeters of rain since 9am Sunday -- the wettest 24-hour period in one year -- due to a high level of atmospheric moisture from unseasonably warm sea-surface temperatures, Weatherzone meteorologist Tristan Meyers told Xinhua on Monday.

Australia has been inundated with unseasonal weather linked to the fading El Nino phenomenon -- exacerbating heated body of water travelling through the equatorial pacific -- which will see temperatures continue in the early 30-degree Celsius range mid-week from a"very hot air mass"lingering over northern Australia.

"The unusually cloudless days that northern parts of Australia are experiencing due to a lack of monsoonal activity has contributed to the air mass being warmer than usual at this time of year, translating into more heat for the south," Meyers said.

The Pacific El Nino weather pattern has delayed the onset of Australia's monsoon season.

Bad news for Australian grain farmers, the isolation of rain across the eastern seaboard is leading to a high-pressure build-up across inland Australia, contributing to stable and dryer conditions.

Despite early-year rains, eastern Australian farmers will be forced to dry sow their coming wheat crops as the dry spell is unlikely to break before May, despite an isolated"drizzly shower"or two toward the end of the week.

Dry sowing is risky if rains do not arrive, eroding soils and therefore hitting yields.

"The east coast cropping belt is pretty dry... and if it doesn't rain by the end of April, many farmers like myself will be very worried," Dan Copper, a wheat farmer from central New South Wales state, told global news agency Reuters at the weekend.

An unfavourable east-coast production may curb the predicted 24.5 million tonne forecast, lending support to benchmark prices that have been fallen on global over supply. The bulk of Australia's wheat is exported into a market that's running at record storage highs.

However it's still too early to confirm a "doom and gloom" scenario for Australia's winter crop as some have envisaged, Mercardo grains analyst Andrew Whitelaw told Xinhua.

"The Bureau of Meteorology is still tracking a high chance of exceeding median rainfall between now and June," Whitelaw said, adding the projections are enough to plant a crop.

"It's not over by any stretch of the imagination... (but) if we're still having the conversation in June, then the guys aren't going to plant as much and the crop yields will be down."

Farmers in Western Australia -- the nation's largest wheat-belt -- are currently planting longer season varieties, taking advantage of moisture from recent rain falls, while east coast farmers can wait until mid-June to plant shorter season varieties.

Changes in practice have also allowed Australian farmers to use scarce water resources more efficiently, including utilising efficient crop varieties and technology such as no-till planting which holds more soil moisture, a result of prolonged periods without rain.

As such, the strong El Nino weather system, which is seeing dry and drought conditions throughout the Asia Pacific, had a relatively benign effect on Australia's 2015 crop, with some locations having rain.

Adding an upbeat outlook, Australia's weather bureau is predicting a 50 percent chance of a La Nina to bring a wet eastern half of Australia between June and August, which historically has boosted grain production by 30 to 60 percent.

"That's really the key area as much has planting the crop," Whitelaw said. Endit