News Analysis: Violence looms as Shiite cleric followers stage sit-in outside Green Zone in Iraq

Thousands of followers of Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr have set up dozens of tents for a sit-in protest around the Green Zone in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad, raising fears that peaceful demonstrations may turn violent.

After weeks of demonstrations in central Baghdad, Sadr's supporters started sit-in protests on Friday. Since then protesters have set up tents, raising Iraqi flags and chanting slogans calling for comprehensive reforms, including a government reshuffle, better services and an end to alleged corruption.

The protests were held as thousands of security forces and riot police were deployed with military patrols moving around the government district.

"I can't say that the protests could turn to clashes, because Sadr himself is part of the leading National Alliance, which is an umbrella group that contains the Shiite parties," political expert Najib al-Jubouri told Xinhua.

"Sadr's call for sit-ins is more like an attempt to win greater popularity among the Shiite Muslims, especially after the Islamic Shiite political parties lost much of their support among their own grassroots for their failure in leading the country and the spread of corruption during the years after the U.S.-led invasion in 2003," Jubouri said.

However, Jubouri believes that the sit-in protest was apparently part of Sadr's plan to put pressure on Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to carry out comprehensive and effective reforms, including replacing some of his cabinet members with non-political technocrats.

In his speech on Friday, Sadr criticized the Iraqi government for corruption and malfunction, despite the fact that Sadr himself is part of the country's political process, and his al-Ahrar parliamentary bloc has three cabinet posts and holds 34 seats in the 328-member parliament.

Some lawmakers and cabinet members in his bloc are also facing allegations of corruption.

"Today I am declaring that none of the people who are in the government are representing us, regardless of whether they sympathize with us or belong to us," Sadr told his supporters.

Last year, Abadi implemented several packages of reforms, including removing the posts of vice president and deputy premier and cutting 11 of his cabinet posts, in addition to slashing the number of guards for senior officials.

However, his reforms failed to convince the public, who continued their demonstrations and recently resorted to sit-ins around the Green Zone, which houses the main government offices, including the parliament, and some foreign embassies.

Over the past few days, Abadi has asked the political blocs to name candidates for his proposed cabinet as part of his plan for reforms.

Opponents of Abadi's plan, including Sadr, insist that such reforms would be insufficient and ineffective, because any new minister, even if a technocrat, may not have enough power to tackle corruption inside his ministry as he is nominated by the same parties and political blocs who are accused of graft.

Most of the country's political parties have built their own influence and power throughout years of spat across the country after 2003, and none of them is willing to lose their gains, analysts say.

Sabah al-Sheikh, a political analyst, said that so far, the protests seem peaceful, but there is no guarantee that they would not get out of control, given the presence of radical elements.

"The risk of clashes between security forces and protesters still high, especially since the protest has already been declared illegal in accordance with the Iraqi law, which permits licensed demonstrations but not sit-in protests," Sheikh told Xinhua.

Any chaos and violence between the two sides, who are both Shiites, could lead to serious rifts within the Iraqi Shiite community.

"The Shiite-Shiite infighting would make the division of Iraqi society even worse and further destabilize the country, amid ongoing clashes with Islamic State (IS) militants who have seized swathes of territories in northern and western Iraq," Sheikh warned.

Proposed government reshuffle may result in a bitter and possibly violent power struggle among the Iraqi factions, which could paralyze the political process until the next national elections in 2018, or lead to early national elections, local observers said.

"If Abadi fails to come up with comprehensive reforms that could be effective to counter corruption and administrative incompetence, he and his cabinet perhaps will resign," Sheikh said. "I am afraid there would be unpredictable consequences on the political life and on the battlefields with the IS group in northern and western Iraq."

At the sit-in site, fears are running high that possible intruders might turn the atmosphere there explosive and lead to attempts to storm the Green Zone.

"There must be a continuous dialogue among all political factions to ease the tension, especially when there are some attempts from political opponents to create strife among the Shiite blocs to destabilize the situation," Sheikh said. Endit