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News Analysis: Trump's rhetoric may win him Republican nomination, but could lose him White House race

Xinhua, March 17, 2016 Adjust font size:

U.S. Republican Party (GOP) front-runner Donald Trump's over-the-top style could help him win the Republican nomination, but the question remains whether his outlandish rhetoric could hurt him in a White House run, experts said.

Trump won big in Tuesday's crucial contest, taking all of the state of Florida's 99 delegates in a major upset that knocked Florida Senator Marco Rubio out of the race for good. The New York billionaire also scored victories in Illinois and North Carolina, racking up wins in a total of 18 states this primary season.

At the same time, Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton blocked her rival Senator Bernie Sanders' advance, by winning the Democratic primaries in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Illinois.

But while Trump's controversial rhetoric -- critics call it downright obnoxious and racist -- have endeared him to supporters who are fed up with Washington's elite, the question remains whether his in-your-face style will hurt him in a general election against Clinton.

"Trump's penchant for sharp rhetoric and obnoxious comments have helped him among the Republican base, but it also raises serious issues for the general election about his temperament and suitability for the presidency," Brookings Institution's senior fellow Darrell West told Xinhua.

"People like Trump because he talks tough and claims to represent all those millions of voters who have been left behind in the current economy. They see him as a white knight who is too rich to be bought and will shake things up in Washington," West said.

But could that rhetoric hurt him in the long run? The jury remains out, though it is a possibility.

"Opponents already are using his negative comments about women and immigrants to mobilize support among those constituencies, and those efforts will intensify as we move toward the general election," West said.

Moreover, Trump has high levels of negatives among Americans, which are a result of his outlandish rhetoric, and that could hurt him in the long run -- although most analysts stop short of predicting this will cause an outright loss in November.

"He has high negatives and that will be hard for him to overcome in the fall election," West said.

Julian Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, told Xinhua that part of the reason Trump's supporters like him is because of the anger in the electorate.

"His supporters see this as a person willing to speak his mind rather than read a campaign script. For others, they like this style and see his attacks on political correctness and many social groups as appealing," he said.

Still, part of it is less about him than about their anger with the political system itself, he added.

For her part, there is no doubt among analysts that Clinton will clinch the Democratic nomination.

"She has a substantial lead among delegates and has demonstrated the ability to win in different parts of the country," West said.

"Party leaders see her as the nominee and will coalesce quickly around her campaign. The goal of Democrats is to start the general election battle against Trump right now and win the election early by framing him in a negative light," he said.

In a Trump-Clinton matchup, analysts predict the sparks will fly in a knock-down, drag-out fight between two polar opposites, and at a time in which Democrats are shifting more toward the left and Republicans are shifting toward the right on a number of issues.

Analysts say Clinton vs. Trump would guarantee a large turnout from each of their bases amid a highly polarized political environment.

Polls show that Clinton leads against Trump in the general election. Still, the New York real estate tycoon has time and again beaten analysts' odds, and if he clinches the nomination and focuses his energies on Clinton, he may once again surprise political prognosticators, pundits and analysts.

Republican strategist Ford O'Connell told Xinhua that Trump is more electable in a general election than people think.

"I actually think he's far more electable than people realize," he said.

"He's got 100 percent name recognition, people are angry, and frankly he's got a lot of general election positions that help him," he said, adding that despite what some see as offensive statements, his policy positions are "more mainstream and appealing than people realize."

Critics have blasted Trump for what they call a simplistic mantra of "Let's make America great again," and argue that the businessman has failed to outline exactly how he would boost the economy, reduce unemployment and strengthen U.S. foreign policy, as he says he will do.

But while pundits and media have made this an issue, Dan Mahaffee, an analyst with the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, told Xinhua he does not think much of the American public is concerned yet about how Trump's plans might be accomplished.

"How you plan to get things done is rarely discussed by any candidate on the trail. Hence, the famous quote from (former New York Governor) Mario Cuomo,'You campaign in poetry. You govern in prose,'" he said.

Critics also charge Trump with flip flopping on a number of issues, and political strategists said that Clinton's best bet would be to point out the discrepancies between Trump's rhetoric and his actions.

Still, Trump changing his tune on certain issues may be part of his strategy.

"I think Trump is actually using some of his changes in position to try to show that he's more moderate and pragmatic rather than stuck to some orthodoxy or locked into some of the harsher stances he's taken on the trail," Mahaffee said. Endite