Interview: Obama's Cuba visit to influence beyond his administration

U.S. President Barack Obama's upcoming visit to Cuba marks a "positive" step to crystallize U.S. foreign policy toward Cuba beyond his administration, said a renowned Latin American political observer.

Angel Flisfisch, director of the Chilean branch of the Latin American Social Sciences Institute (known by its Spanish acronym FLACSO-Chile), believes Obama's progressive policies will be a boon for Cuba.

"The U.S. president's visit to Cuba is positive and can in the medium term project a more active engagement policy toward the island and Latin America," Flisfisch told Xinhua in an interview.

Obama, expected in Cuba on March 21-22 for a state visit, and his Cuban counterpart Raul Castro jointly announced in December 2014 they had agreed to restore diplomatic ties as a first step to normalizing the bilateral relationship after half a century of Cold War-era antagonism.

"Restoring diplomatic ties (between Cuba and the United States) was of utmost importance ... because it eliminated from the Latin American scene a cause of tension in hemispheric relations," said Flisfisch.

The two sides have been meeting regularly since the historic announcement, reestablishing contact between their two countries via post, air connections and telecommunications.

Their respective embassies were opened in July 2015, but key demands from both sides remain pending, including Cuba's call for lifting the trade embargo against it by the United States.

With that hurdle behind them, Flisfisch said he expects "Cuba is going to insist on the need for the United States to put an end to the economic embargo, and that will be the big topic" during Obama's visit.

With Obama's term ending in January 2017, and the race to succeed him in full swing, the question of the embargo will likely have to wait until his successor takes office.

But Flisfisch believes Obama's change of tack on Cuba and Latin America will be passed on to the next administration, at least if it's a Democratic one.

Obama's Cuba visit, he said, will "force the Democratic presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, to adopt a positive stance toward the island and she would not be able to backtrack on the progress in U.S.-Cuba relations," if elected in November.

Of the two Democratic frontrunners, Clinton and Bernie Sanders, Sanders has more positive opinions on the island's government and what it has achieved, to the degree that Clinton has criticized him as being overly soft on Cuba. But Clinton, according to Flisfisch, has the best chances so far of securing her party's nomination.

The visit "reaffirms a different U.S. policy, possibly leaving a legacy to Clinton and, if the democrats are well represented in the House of Representatives and the Senate, it could mean the future elimination of the economic embargo," said Flisfisch.

Flisfisch envisions a scenario in which "Obama would return to his country and deliver a positive speech on ending the embargo, thus passing the baton to Clinton."

Looking past the immediate future to Cuba-U.S. ties down the line, Flisfisch says "Cuba's economy is going to undergo major transformation in the coming years, and that is necessarily going to have a positive influence on Cuban society and culture."

Greater prosperity, however, may have its pitfalls, especially for a country with no experience in managing wealth gaps due to its egalitarian socialist model.

"Now, with the necessary opening up and expansion of small and medium-size companies, it will have to tackle, for example, the issue of housing in Havana and other cities," said Flisfisch.

Established in 1957 on the recommendation of UNESCO, FLACSO is an independent inter-governmental organization with 17 member countries across the region. Endi