Spotlight: Bolivian referendum to decide future of Morales gov't

Bolivians will decide whether to give President Evo Morales another term of office in Sunday's referendum.

Voters are asked to either accept or reject a constitutional amendment that would allow a president to serve four consecutive terms.

Should the yes vote win, Morales, who won elections in 2005, 2009 and 2014, would be eligible for a fourth term in 2019.

Should his opponents win, it would allow the country's conservative camp an opportunity to re-assert its influence.

According to political observer Ludwig Valverde, the referendum would be tough for Morales, given the larger political context of Latin America, where the leftist movement is waning.

"The future of the region's progressive left, whose standard bearer is ALBA (the Venezuelan-led Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America), is faced with a complex challenge," said Valverde.

Sunday's poll in Bolivia will be a litmus test for the vigor of the leftist movement.

"Depending on the results, we will know whether the (political) trend is in crisis or whether it still has credibility, following the electoral defeats in Venezuela and Argentina," said Valverde.

Venezuela's Socialists lost majority in Parliament in recent elections, while Argentina's presidential elections saw the left-leaning ruling party lose to its conservative rival.

Private polling firms say the yes and no camps in Bolivia are virtually tied, and the outcome will be determined by the 10 percent who are currently undecided and the 5 percent who are living abroad but are eligible to vote.

Unusual for a leader who has been in power for 10 years, Morales has enjoyed relatively high approval ratings, thanks mainly to a high performing economy and government policies that reinvest revenues back into society.

But negative campaigning in the lead-up to the referendum has taken its toll, says Valverde.

"The ruling party has seen some rough setbacks in the past two weeks from the opposition's strategy of mud slinging," he said.

Political observer Carlos Cordero says the no camp has gained momentum following a scandal in which the president's ex-girlfriend has allegedly benefited from influence peddling.

On top of that, there have been allegations of irregularities in the military service and academic degrees of Vice President Alvaro Garcia, Morales's right arm.

Hugo Moldiz, a political analyst and former interior minister, believes Morales' biggest challenge will be to convince the undecided 10 percent of voters, who he describes as middle-class Bolivians who yearn for stability.

All three experts agree that a "no" vote would have repercussions well beyond Bolivia's borders, because it would signal further disenchantment with the left.

In Bolivia, Morales still enjoys strong popular backing, because he has provided economic, political and social stability for a decade, said Moldiz.

During his rule, the country's gross domestic product almost quadrupled and poverty was halved, according to the state Bolivian News Agency. Endi