News Analysis: S.Korea divided over U.S. THAAD deployment for diplomacy, plausibility

South Korea has been divided over whether to deploy a sophisticated U.S. missile defense system in its territory on worries about the expected escalation of regional tensions and an unproven plausibility of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), both militarily and environmentally.

The official announcement of South Korea and the United States to begin talks about the THAAD deployment came just hours after the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)'s launch of a long-range rocket on Feb. 7.

The rocket launch, which Pyongyang claimed was part of a peaceful space program, but which Seoul and Washington denounced as a test of banned ballistic missile technology, followed the DPRK's fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6, the first of its disputed H-bomb test.

Calling Pyongyang's repeated rocket launches and nuclear tests as a serious threat of weapons of mass destruction in the region, Seoul's defense ministry said the THAAD deployment would be focused solely on defending South Korea against mounting nuclear and missile threats from the DPRK.

Opponents, especially opposition lawmakers in South Korea, said the deployment to escalate regional tensions as China and Russia expressed oppositions to the THAAD since its radar can help U.S. forces locate missiles in a broader range of the Asian continent beyond the DPRK.

Experts opposing the THAAD were skeptical about its operational effectiveness in South Korea as it is one of the most advanced missile defense systems in the world but falls short of shielding the country from hundreds of shorter-range DPRK missiles that can fall on the entire South Korea in several minutes.

Controversy over an environmental effect remained as the THAAD's radar emits super-strong microwaves doing harm to human bodies and paralyzing electronic devices.

COVERAGE BEYOND DPRK

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke out against possible THAAD deployment in South Korea at a meeting with his U.S. counterpart John Kerry on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Friday. He said it would complicate the regional stability situation.

"The deployment of the THAAD system by the United States...goes far beyond the defense needs of the Korean Peninsula and the coverage would mean it will reach deep into the Asian continent," Wang said on the sidelines of the Munich meeting.

Seoul's defense ministry has claimed that the THAAD is not targeting China or any other country except the DPRK, but its radar will help U.S. troops in South Korea naturally spot missiles in some regions of China and Russia bordering the DPRK.

The THAAD's X-band radar, or the AN/TPY-2 radar, reportedly has two versions: forward-based mode (FBM) and terminal mode (TM) that are the same in hardware and different in software and communications system.

The terminal mode, which Seoul is seeking to adopt, has a maximum detecting range of 600 km, while the forward mode can track missiles as far as 1,800 km. As the two have the same hardware, the terminal mode can be converted into the forward mode when necessary.

Seeing a rise in demand for the U.S. anti-missile system among South Korea's ruling party lawmakers as a sign of imminent deployment, Russian Ambassador to South Korea Alexander Timonin expressed opposition to the U.S. air defense system in early February.

Timonin called for all relevant parties to exercise restraint, saying that the THAAD deployment in South Korea will not give any help or benefit to regional peace and stability and in resolving a nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula.

The THAAD issue caused mixed reactions among South Korean politicians. Lee Jong-Geol, floor leader of the main opposition Minju Party, appeared in a program of local broadcaster MBC on Sunday, saying that his party hasn't opposed to discussions on the THAAD deployment "unconditionally."

"What's important is that China and Russia is thinking of the THAAD as a strategy toward them, not toward North Korea (DPRK)," said Lee.

He noted that if such situations continue, the THAAD deployment will escalate regional tensions and endanger the peninsula's peace.

Refuting Lee's comments, ruling Saenuri Party floor leader Won Yoo-chul told the same TV program that the THAAD is the only available tool to effectively deter the DPRK's nuclear and missile threats.

SUSPICIOUS EFFECTIVENESS

Operational effectiveness of the THAAD has long fallen under suspicion as the U.S. air defense system aims to track and destroy missiles at an altitude of 40-150 km during the terminal phase of flight. It means an interception of missiles just inside or outside of the stratosphere after the missiles begin falling closer to the ground.

Most of DPRK missiles directly targeting South Korea fly at a much lower altitude, propping up suspicion about the THAAD's effectiveness in the South Korean territory. Pyongyang is known to have about 400 Scud missiles with a 300-700 km range and around 300 Rodong missiles that can hit targets as far as 1,200 km.

The 700 attack missiles and other shorter-range arsenal, including multiple rocket launchers deployed in border areas, fly at an altitude of less than 20 km, being capable of striking Seoul within a minute and the entire South Korea in 10 minutes.

The number of the DPRK's longer-range Musudan missiles, capable of reaching at least 3,000 km, was estimated at 30-50, while the Pentagon estimated that Pyongyang had six KN-08 missiles, believed to be a mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that can fly as far as 10,000 km to reach part of the U.S. mainland.

One of prominent missile defense experts opposing the THAAD deployment in South Korea worried that the U.S. missile defense system may prove useless as the DPRK showed capability to self-destruct a propellant into hundreds of pieces.

After Pyongyang's rocket launch on Feb.7, Seoul's defense ministry said that its Aegis radar detected the first-stage propellant of the DPRK rocket that had been self-destructed into about 270 fragments to prevent South Korea from collecting and analyzing the propellant.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) emeritus professor Theodore Postol said in an interview with local newspaper Hankyoreh that the DPRK could explode its warhead-carrying missile into multiple pieces to block the THAAD radar from identifying an actual warhead.

As there is no air-drag to slow up light objects relative to heavy objects at a very high altitude, the exploded fragments will serve as false targets, flying along with a real warhead on the same general trajectory, according to Postol. He said the self-destruction technology can be applied to the DPRK's Rodong missiles.

TWO-THIRDS IN FAVOR

A recent survey showed that about two-thirds of South Koreans favored the THAAD deployment, but it could change as controversies remained over safety and possible negative effect on the economy from soured diplomatic ties with neighboring countries.

According to a poll of 1,013 South Korean adults, 67.1 percent expressed support for the THAAD deployment in preparation for the DPRK's nuclear and missile threats. Only 26.2 percent opposed to it in consideration of oppositions from neighboring countries, including China and Russia.

The survey was conducted for two days through Friday by Yonhap news agency and broadcaster KBS.

More than half of respondents even supported South Korea's homegrown development of nuclear weapons or the deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear devices, indicating vague fears seemed to have spread following the DPRK's recent nuclear test and rocket launch. Favoring the denuclearized Korean peninsula accounted for 41.1 percent of the total.

Those vague fears may change into fury at the government if Seoul and Washington begin talks about where and when to deploy the THAAD, of which radar emits super-strong radio waves being harmful to human bodies and paralyzing airplanes and electronic devices within 5.5 km.

Seoul's defense ministry set its estimated safety zone at locations more than 100 meters away from the THAAD radar, saying the radar will do little damage to people standing 100 meters away from it.

U.S. Army's technical report, however, set land within 100 meters of the X-band radar as an absolute hazard zone, banning unauthorized personnel from entering areas within 3.6 km of it due to potential damage to human bodies. Some of local media reports criticized the ministry for possible underestimation of hazard.

Potential harms led the U.S. Army to deploy a THAAD battery in Guam, surrounded by sea, and four batteries in the middle of deserts in Texas. If a THAAD battery is deployed in South Korea, its radar will stand northward and face a densely populated region.

Public rage may arise in candidate cities for the THAAD deployment as the mentioning itself can drag down housing prices, a sensitive issue to ordinary South Koreans. The forced deployment without social consensus would raise anti-American sentiment among residents in candidate regions.

Worrying voice about possible negative effect on the economy was also heard as China is South Korea's biggest trading partner. Cheong Seong-Chang, a senior researcher at the private Sejong Institute, said on the phone that possibility got higher for South Korea's economy to be hit hard if trade with China is affected by regional tension.

Cheong said it became difficult to introduce effective sanctions toward the DPRK as South Korea worsened relations with China and Russia. Seoul's good ties with Beijing and Moscow are crucial to adopting effective anti-DPRK restrictions in cooperation with the international community, he noted.

Calling South Korea's response to recent DPRK provocations as "emotional," the researcher said that Seoul's decision to deploy the THAAD, to which China and Russia showed strong oppositions, would inevitably aggravate relations with China and Russia. Enditem