Severe drought in southern Africa driven by El Nino: UN-backed assessment

A joint statement by two UN agencies and their partners warned that southern Africa is currently in the grip of an intense drought caused by the worst El Nino event in half a century.

While addressing a daily news briefing held here Friday, UN spokesman Stephane Dujarric said the warning was given by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the World Food Programme (WFP) and partners in the statement on the impact of El Nino on southern Africa's harvests and food security.

FAO, WFP and their partners said the drought in southern Africa has expanded and strengthened, claiming the dry spell has been driven by one of the strongest El Nino events of the last 50 years.

Across large swaths of Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia, South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana and Madagascar, the current rainfall season has so far been the driest in the last 35 years, said the UN spokesman.

"While it is too early to provide detailed estimates of the population likely to be food-insecure in 2016-2017, it is expected that the population in need of emergency food assistance and livelihood recovery support will increase significantly," he said.

Much of the southern African sub-region has consequently experienced significant delays in planting and very poor conditions for early crop development and pasture re-growth. In many areas, planting has not been possible due to 30 to 50 day delays in the onset of seasonal rains, resulting in widespread crop failure, according to the agencies.

Although there has been some relief since mid-January in certain areas, the agencies warned that the window of opportunity for the successful planting of crops under rain-fed conditions is nearly closed. Even assuming normal rainfall for the remainder of the season, cropwater balance models indicate poor performance of maize over a widespread area.

Seasonal forecasts from a variety of sources are unanimous in predicting a continuation of below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures across most of the region for the remainder of the growing season.

The combination of a poor 2014-2015 season, an extremely dry early season (October to December), and forecasts for continuing hot and drier-than-average conditions through mid-2016, suggest a scenario of extensive, regional-scale crop failure.

Drought emergencies have been declared in most of South Africa's provinces as well as in Zimbabwe and Lesotho. Water authorities in Botswana, Swaziland, South Africa and Namibia are limiting water usage because of low water levels. Power outages have been occurring in Zambia and Zimbabwe as water levels at the Kariba Dam have become much lower than usual.

In the short term, the agencies recommend continued close monitoring of the season to inform decision-makers on programming and targeting; immediate additional assistance to help currently food-insecure households; updating of contingency plans, intensification of advocacy and resource mobilization to address the impact of an extended post-2016 harvest lean season; and increased awareness of the need for a regional approach to address the effects of the drought that is becoming more frequent and intense. Endit