News Analysis: Palestinian reconciliation dialogue to resume soon amid fears of failure

Leaders of the two rival Palestinian groups are scheduled to meet in a few days in Qatar to discuss the possible reconciliation.

However, local observers and analysts have ruled out that the dialogue would end the eight-year-old division between Islamic Hamas movement and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas Fatah party.

The two rivals are scheduled to meet following informal talks last month to implement understandings and agreements reached in the past and sponsored by Qatar, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.

Local analysts and observers believe there are motives for resuming the reconciliation talks in this stage. However, there are obstacles to achieve a real breakthrough in ending the ongoing national split in Palestine.

MOTIVES OF DIALOGUE

Rajab Abu Serreya, a West Bank-based political analyst, told Xinhua that both Fatah and Hamas suffer from "an extremely difficult status regarding ruling the Gaza Strip and the West Bank."

"Political partnership between them is still obstructed, and this weakened the internal Palestinian front," he said, adding that "in the meanwhile, the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) failed to achieve the goal of establishing a Palestinian state through peace negotiations with Israel."

Abu Serreya accused Hamas of failure in resolving the comprehensive humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, the coastal enclave that the movement has been ruling since its militias' violent takeover of the territory in 2007 and ousted security forces of Abbas.

"The upcoming session of dialogue may succeed because the two rivals have a specific issue to discuss and agree upon, which is the formation of a broader unity government instead of the current weak consensus government that was formed in accordance between the two sides in 2014," said Abu Serreya.

President Abbas unveiled last week that he provided a two-point offer to Hamas, forming a unity government for three months and then holding the general presidential and parliamentary elections.

Last October, an unofficial meeting was held between the leaders of the two rival groups in Lebanon.

However, these sideline meetings made no progress while the two rivals kept their feuds on the rule of the current government and their responsibilities.

Fatah said Hamas refuse to hand over security control of Gaza to the government and Hamas said the government refuses to pay the salaries of 43,000 employees in Gaza.

POLITICAL OBSTACLES

The Palestinian public opinion didn't show any enthusiasm towards the expected meeting that will be held soon in Qatar due to the rivals' previous attempts in the past eight years to end the internal division.

Talal Oukal, a Gaza-based political analyst, told Xinhua there are obstacles towards the upcoming meeting, adding that "one of these obstacles is that the two rivals haven't changed their strategies towards each other."

"The second obstacle is that the efforts of Qatar and Turkey won't be enough to bridge the gaps between the two rivals," said Oukal, adding that "any agreement between the two sides should be ensured and guaranteed. Otherwise, it won't succeed."

Egypt sponsored the first Palestinian reconciliation agreement in Cairo in May 2011. However, the agreement remained unimplemented without ending the internal division. Egypt's involvement reduced after its ties with Hamas became tense.

After the ouster of Islamist President Mohamed Morsi in July 2013, the relations between the Egyptian new leadership and Hamas, an ally of Morsi's Muslim Brotherhood in Gaza, has strained.

REQUIREMENTS OF SUCCESS

The resumption of reconciliation dialogue will be made as a wave of tension has been going on between Israel and the Palestinians since early October last year.

Palestinian Health Ministry announced that so far 166 Palestinians were killed. About 30 Israelis are also dead.

Local observers believe that the current conflict is so complicated to trigger a new Israeli military offensive on the Gaza Strip. Besides, the ongoing stalemate in the Middle East peace process is unable to put an end to the conflict.

Hani el-Masri, head of Masarat, or the Palestinian Center for Policy Research & Strategic Studies, told Xinhua that the success of the internal Palestinian dialogue "should be based on an agreement on a comprehensive package and a new vision suitable for the coming Palestinian stage."

"The Palestinian rivals should agree on a complete map and not only to sign an agreement similar to previous ones they failed to implement," he said, adding that "they should form a powerful unity government that is able to confront the current realities in the Palestinian territories."

He said an agreement on the political program of the government "should be the starting point of the success of achieving the reconciliation," adding that "it is also necessary to specify the coming steps and the time agenda for the implementation of their understandings and agreements." Endit