Spotlight: A long road ahead to lasting peace in Syria

The hopes for a lasting peace in Syria, a country at war since 2011, was rekindled Monday after the United Nations (UN) envoy officially declared the start of a third round of intra-Syria peace talks in Geneva, Switzerland.

It remains uncertain whether the cloud doubt over the outcome of the talks can give way to fireworks celebrating the end of five years of misery, as differences persist both within groups inside Syria and among global powers on the outside.

A TOUGH START

After meeting with a delegation from the main Syrian opposition group, the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), the UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura told reporters Monday at the UN office in Geneva that the renewed peace talks had formally begun, hailing that the mere presence of the opposition group was enough for him to make such announcement.

"We will not just only have a conference in Geneva, but also provide something that the Syrian people can see and touch," de Mistura said, adding that something different from the previous talks -- among which were the two rounds of negotiations in Geneva in 2012 and 2014 -- must be done.

The envoy, who met a Syrian government delegation on Friday, was working to keep the intermittent peace process alive, trying to bridge the government with the opposition group, who set such preconditions for talks as resumption of humanitarian efforts in besieged areas. The government blamed the opposition as not being serious.

The latest UN-brokered peace talks have already been postponed for several days, largely because of disputes over which opposition group can take part and the opposition's demands that include allowing aid to the besieged rebel-held areas, an end to bombardments against civilians and the release of detainees.

"If we see an implementation of these demands ... we will consider this a sign of good will," said Salem el-Meslet, the spokesman for the HNC, which is comprised of 17 members.

According to Wu Bingbing, head of the Institute of Arabic-Islamic Culture Studies at Peking University, the disputes over the formation of the opposition delegation is an illustration that even when a political solution to the Syrian crisis reaches a consensus, implementing will be a long-term and painstaking effort.

NEW DEVELOPMENTS VS UNRESOLVED ISSUES

Even though the circumstances inside Syria and among relevant global powers have both changed during the hiatus between the last Geneva talks and the current one, several unresolved issues remain, thus making the effort to end the protracted bloodshed an uneasy task.

Analysts believe the fact that terrorism has grown more rampant is one of the reasons for the international community to beef up efforts for a cease-fire in Syria. The Islamic State (IS) for instance has already conquered large swaths of Syria and Iraq,

"It's true that the main focus is primarily about what is happening in Syria, but now the United States and Russia realize that solving the Syrian crisis is a key factor to curb the growing threat of terrorism," said Ali Ahmed, consultant of the Syrian Information Minister.

The ongoing Geneva talks are part of the process outlined by the UN Security Council resolution 2254 adopted last month. It envisions an 18-month timetable for a political transition in Syria, including the drafting of a new constitution and elections.

However, analysts cast a doubt in the implementation of the UN roadmap, noting that it doesn't go into such details as who will lead the military and intelligence apparatus during the transitional period in Syria. There's also a lack of specified power-sharing between the current regime and the opposition group, they say.

While acknowledging the Iranian nuclear deal reached in July 2015 and the Russian military intervention in Syria beginning in September 2015 have brought the balance needed to bring the conflict to a political end, conflicting interests from outside powers still hamper a foreseeable cease-fire.

The nuclear accord between Tehran and the six world powers -- namely Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States -- will make Iran, an ally of the Syrian government, capable of imposing its will in Syria. But observers worry that the recent deterioration of Iran-Saudi Arabia relations will further complicate the Syrian peace talks as Riyadh, another regional power, supports the opposition.

Meanwhile, Russia began military operations in September to attack IS facilities at the request of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. The West has been blaming Moscow for hitting the opposition group including those supported by the West.

The Russian intervention has effectively facilitated Assad's troops, enabling them to launch a series of attacks in several rebel-held areas in cities such as Latakia and Aleppo in the north and Darra in the south.

Although Russia's involvement has vastly changed the situation on the ground and Moscow and Washington have been in close coordination, one fundamental difference yet to be agreed upon is the fate of Assad. Russia is largely seen as propping up Assad's regime while the West is convinced that Assad must step down.

Political analyst Isam Samer told Xinhua that Syria is now witnessing intense battles on all fronts, with each and every side fighting the war hoping to achieve territorial gains in order to empower their positions at the Geneva talks.

At the same time, divisions among various opposition groups remain unchanged, which makes analysts believe compromises will be hard to come by during the negotiations.

It is estimated that 250,000 Syrians have died since the civil war started in 2011. More than 4 million people have fled the country, and that 6.5 million have been internally displaced since then. Another 13.5 million people inside the country are in urgent need of humanitarian aid. Endi