4th LD-Writethru-China Focus: China reports better-than-expected trade data

China reported better-than-expected trade data for December, which helped allay concerns about the state of the world's second-largest economy.

Exports in yuan-denominated terms climbed 2.3 percent year on year in December, compared with November's 3.7-percent drop, while imports declined 4 percent, an improvement from the previous month's 5.6-percent fall, leaving a widening trade surplus of 382.1 billion yuan (57.9 billion U.S. dollars), according to data the General Administration of Customs (GAC) released on Wednesday.

For the whole of 2015, total export and import values decreased 7 percent year on year, falling for the first time in six years.

GAC spokesperson Huang Songping attributed the decline to falling commodity prices and sluggish external demand.

In dollar-denominated terms, China's exports fell for the sixth consecutive month, by 1.4 percent from one year earlier in December, but the slowing pace decelerated from November's 6.8 percent decline. Imports decreased 7.6 percent year on year, receding for 14th consecutive month, but improving from the previous month's 8.7-percent drop.

Economists had forecast an eight-percent fall for exports in December and an 11-percent decline for imports.

REASSURING SIGNS

"A return to growth for exports after five months of contraction is a reassuring sign, and further evidence that the economy is not teetering on the brink," Bloomberg economist Tom Orlik said in a report to clients.

Orlik ticked off positive changes, including China's continuous expansion in global trade market share and the share of domestic value added in exports.

According to Bloomberg Intelligence Economics' estimates, for every dollar of China's exports in 2015, 70 cents came from domestic production and 30 cents from imported components. That compares with about 50 cents from domestic production and 50 cents from imported parts back in 2006.

The higher share of domestic value added suggests China's manufacturing sector is moving up the value chain, Orlik said.

Although China's exports of labor-intensive goods, including clothing and shoes, contracted last year, its overseas shipments of mechanical and electrical products grew by 1.2 percent, accounting for 57.7 percent of last year's total, 1.7 percentage points more than 2014, GAC data showed.

While falling commodity prices continued to weigh on China's import growth in terms of value, commodity imports have shown further signs of stabilization in volume terms, a boost for commodity exporting nations.

China's crude oil imports in 2015 rose 8.8 percent to 336 million tonnes, copper imports surged 12.6 percent to 13.3 million tonnes while that of iron ore climbed 2.2 percent to 953 million tonnes, GAC reported.

BUMPY YEAR AHEAD

Despite the better-than-expected trade figures, which helped shore up stocks in Asia Pacific, officials forecast more pain as demand for Chinese goods remains weak.

China's foreign trade will face many challenges in 2016 as feeble global economic growth and sluggish external demand will not see evident improvement, Huang said.

"The situation in the first quarter of the year will still be relatively severe," he said.

The trade data came as China's financial markets erupted in a new round of volatility, jolting investors worldwide.

Its currency, the yuan, weakened by 1.5 percent against the dollar last week, the largest weekly decline in five months, while stock prices plunged, with the benchmark Shanghai index losing more than 16 percent in the first eight trading days of 2016, sparking concerns about the economy.

However, economists said there had been little evidence that the country's economic conditions deteriorated sharply in recent weeks and the government's support, through fiscal and infrastructure measures and accelerated structural reforms, would help unlock new sources of growth this year.

The December trade data, together with the high-frequency data and leading indicators, have offered further signs of the economy stabilizing, albeit at a low level, Nomura chief China economist Zhao Yang said.

China's economy likely grew by around 7 percent last year, in line with the government's annual target, the country's top economic planner said Tuesday.

It would be the lowest rate of growth in a quarter of a century, down from 7.3 percent in 2014, as weak exports, industrial overcapacity and faltering investment weighed on growth. Economists forecast growth to slow further this year.

Policy makers should deliver a package of policy measures, combining interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts, tax reductions, infrastructure investment with growth-friendly reforms to lift confidence, HSBC said in a note. Endi