News Analysis: Al-Qaida's re-emerging could be dangerous in 2016: U.S. experts

Infamous terror group al-Qaida is back again, and that could be a dangerous development in 2016 that should not be underestimated, U.S. experts said.

Al-Qaida changed the focus of U.S. foreign policy when the group, under terror mastermind Osama bin Laden, attacked New York and Washington on Sept.11, 2001 in a strike that killed nearly 3,000 people.

In the years following, the U.S. intelligence community put a stranglehold on the organization, cutting off sources of financing and essentially rendering it ineffective.

But now the group is re-emerging. The New York Times reported earlier this week that a number of training camps are sprouting up in Afghanistan, where the group had a safe haven in the 1990s and from where it planned and trained for the Sept. 11 attacks.

The Times reported that, had those camps re-emerged a couple of years ago, the issue of fighting al-Qaida would have shot to the top of U.S. President Barack Obama's national security agenda. But with the threat of Islamic State (IS), the war against al-Qaida has been relegated to the backburner.

While the camps are reportedly not as big as those built before the Sept. 11 attacks, experts said the group could become a threat in 2016, as the U.S. anti-terror focus has shifted to fighting IS in Syria and Iraq, and the U.S. military presence is scaling down in Afghanistan.

"Part of the reason for the re-emergence of al-Qaida in Afghanistan is that as the U.S. presence wanes, there are simply fewer resources to maintain a robust intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance effort throughout the entire country," RAND Corporation's associate political scientist Colin P. Clarke told Xinhua.

"That, coupled with the increasing focus on IS and a resurgent Taliban, means that al-Qaida has simply fallen on the depth chart, so to speak,"

While al-Qaida is likely not nearly as powerful as in the late 1990s and early 2000s, experts warned against underestimating the group.

"We need to remember that al-Qaida is the group that planned and executed the 9/11 attacks. And while it is certainly nowhere near the strength it boasted pre 9/11, the will and intent of the group to strike the West is certainly still palpable," said Clarke.

Clarke said al-Qaida is an organization that "has proved time and time again that it is capable of evolving and adapting, whether that is the core group itself or through its franchises and affiliates."

"Currently, we see al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent gaining strength and notoriety, particularly as it seeks to capitalize on previously untapped markets like Bangladesh and even India for recruits," he said.

It remains unknown how the organization is financing itself at the moment. Clarke surmises that the group is engaging in low-level criminality and tapping sources of revenue in local areas where it operates. "So its financing strategy has most likely gone from global to parochial," he said.

Clarke added that while there has been a split between IS and Al-Qaida, it remains possible for the two radical Islamist groups to make amends.

"While many commentators make much out of the AQ-IS divorce, there is still the possibility for rapprochement, if not a marriage of convenience, in the future. Some of this could be driven by the removal of certain leaders, from either of the groups, or more by operational necessities on the ground," he said. Enditem