News Analysis: Trump's nomination uncertain despite lead in national polls: experts

In a surprise year end for political observers, bombastic billionaire Donald Trump has consolidated his status as the Republican front-runner for the 2016 U.S. presidential race. Still, many experts said Trump's nomination is far from certain.

Trump was said to be a flash in the pan just six months ago, with many experts saying that Americans would grow tired of his in-your-face style and controversial statements, one after another after another.

But contrary to predictions, Trump continues to run strong, and is ahead of other candidates by a significant lead in the year-end national polls.

While Trump's fans are revved up about the often obnoxious business tycoon who says whatever he wants whenever he wants, critics say his talking points are all bluster and no content.

Indeed, critics on both sides of the political isle have called him out on what they have at times billed as ridiculous and unworkable policy ideas.

Those ideas include building a wall to keep out illegal Mexican nationals -- and getting Mexico to pay for it -- as well as a ban on Muslims entering the country. He called for the latter after the brutal Islamist terrorist attacks in California and Paris, both of which grabbed global headlines after dozens were murdered amid those attacks.

The question now is how far can he take this lead, and whether he can clinch the Republican nomination and go on to face Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

Julian E. Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University, said Trump's nomination is far from certain.

"(Trump's nomination) is not inevitable at all," he told Xinhua. "There is sufficient evidence that the primaries and caucuses are far from settled. Some strong performances by other candidates early on can change the media story and impact public opinion.

Indeed, while trump is sailing far ahead of the other candidates in the national polls, Zelizer noted that national polls are not what dictates the election.

Brookings Institution's senior fellow Darrell West told Xinhua that Trump's nomination is not inevitable.

"There are many obstacles ahead and some of them could derail his candidacy," West said.

"(Texas Senator Ted) Cruz is leading in Iowa and New Hampshire remains competitive. People should focus more on state than national polls because the election is state-based. Someone could lead in national surveys but not do well in the early states," he said.

The biggest uncertainty for Trump is whether his supporters will turn out. Many of them have not voted in past elections and it is not clear if they will vote, and he needs a big turnout to do well, West said.

The Washington Post noted earlier this week that while Trump draws large crowds at speeches, many might not get out to vote for him.

During a rally in Iowa earlier this month, Trump encouraged supporters to come out and vote.

"You've got to get there. Even if you're not feeling good, if you're feeling horrible, if you had a horrible fight with your wife or your husband ... If you caught your husband cheating the night before, you've got to go to the caucus." Endit