Hong Kong's exports likely to remain flat in 2016: trade council

The Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) predicted on Wednesday that Hong Kong's exports volume is likely to increase by 2 percent in 2016 while unit value may drop by 2 percent, leaving exports value to remain flat in the coming year.

Speaking at a press conference, HKTDC Director of Research Nicholas Kwan said that although the global economy is facing multiple challenges, Hong Kong exporters should not be overly pessimistic about the year ahead.

He said recent fluctuations in global trade are expected to stabilize gradually, with individual countries and regions such as the United States and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) expected to post moderate growth next year.

This will drive a steady growth in Hong Kong's exports, he said.

According to the HKTDC, 2016 is unlikely to be an overly painful year for Hong Kong exporters. It should, instead, see a more stable, albeit still unspectacular, external trade environment pushing against unabated headwinds.

Despite better prospects in the United States, the developed economies on the whole are likely to only expand at a slow pace, while the emerging economies will undergo a bumpy recovery.

Meanwhile, rampant deflationary pressure worldwide, volatilities in the global financial landscape, the growth of regional trade agreements, as well as lingering geopolitical threats and increased terrorist concerns, are the major risks and challenges facing Hong Kong exporters.

Parallel to the lackluster world trade environment, Hong Kong exports, in spite of better showings in the early part of the year, stumbled for the most part in 2015.

After a 3.2 percent rise in 2014, exports declined by 1.7 percent year-on-year in the first ten months of 2015, with cumulative sales starting to shrink in the post-July period, according to the HKTDC. Endit