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News analysis: Will Hollande's spectacular boost in popularity offer political boon to Socialists in regional election?

Xinhua, December 4, 2015 Adjust font size:

The clock is ticking for the ruling Socialists ahead of the regional election, in which they could suffer heavy losses in a punishment vote for their failure to deliver on growth and job promises, according to pollsters.

However, some wonder if the sharp climb in the approval rating of President Francois Hollande in the run-up to the election could represent a political boon to the Socialist candidates in the election of the country's regional councils.

A TNS Sofres-One Point survey showed on Tuesday that Hollande is enjoying an unprecedented poll boost after collecting 35 percent of favorable votes, his best rating since October 2012.

He gained 20 points in November compared to a month earlier, as more people from both right and left camps appreciated his handling and firmness in dealing with security issues after the Paris attacks, it added.

The improvement in approval rating was not limited to Hollande. Prime Minister Manuel Valls has seen his popularity also climb to 43 percent, up by 11 points after the attacks, according to the poll.

According to Erwan Listrohan, director of studies at BVA pollster, Hollande's actions in the wake of the Paris attacks gave him a much-needed shot in the arm. However, little impact on the votes for the country's regional districts on Dec. 6 and 13 was expected.

"It's obvious that Hollande's approval rating jumped and that of Maunel Valls also, but I don't think that it will change voters' intention in favor of the candidates from the ruling party simply because Hollande was rewarded for his action as a president and not for his domestic policy and what he did to resolve the citizens' economic and social problems," Listrohan told Xinhua.

"Since the election of Hollande, the Socialists witnessed losses in previous elections and I suppose they will have the same results in regional election," he added.

The ruling Socialists, currently dominating France's regional councils, were set at third rank with 22 percent of the votes despite the sharp improvement in Hollande's popularity after the Paris attacks. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said the attacks of Nov. 13 had no impact on their choices, according to TNS Sofres-One Point's survey released last week.

A poll by Ipsos pollster showed on Thursday that the anti-immigration and eurosceptic far-rightists were seen leading the first round in six out of 12 regions, the first such performance of the National Front (FN) party.

FN leader Marine Le Pen is expected to win control of France's northernmost area, Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie region, the country's third biggest, with her niece Marion Marechal-Le Pen possibly coming first too in the southeastern region of Provence-Alpes-Cote d'Azur.

Speaking to RTL radio, Alain Duhamel, a political analyst, said the tepid scores of the Socialists in the due election, despite a jump in their leader's appreciation, "is not a surprise."

"The improved president's image and that of his prime minister are indeed directly and almost exclusively linked to their behavior during the attacks," Duhamel said.

Competing for power, the anti-immigrant FN recorded unprecedented victory in the European Parliament election and mayoral run-off in 2014, mirroring a rising public support, likely the way for the far-rightists to rule Europe's second largest economy.

On Sunday, 44.6 million voters will cast their ballots to choose 1,903 councillors in 13 regional districts in the first round of the regional election.

The second round is scheduled for Dec. 13. Endit