News Analysis: Flaring tensions in West Bank not new intifada

The growing violence and clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank and east Jerusalem will not lead to a new popular intifada, or uprising, according to analysts and observers.

In mid-September, tensions broke out as Palestinians strongly protested against the daily entry of Jewish groups into the al-Aqsa mosque compound in east Jerusalem, coinciding with the Jewish holidays.

Another wave of violence flared in the West Bank when Palestinian gunmen opened fire Thursday at a car near the West Bank city of Nablus, killing two settlers. In addition, two other Israelis were killed in a stabbing attack in east Jerusalem.

Meanwhile, two Palestinians were killed in east Jerusalem, including the young man who stabbed the two Israelis, and the other two were killed in fierce clashes in Tulkarem and Bethlehem.

Over 500 Palestinians were injured in these clashes.

INDIVIDUAL INTIFADA DUE TO HOPELESSNESS

Confrontations in West Bank town and village streets between young Palestinians throwing stones and burning tires and Israeli soldiers firing tear gas, rubber bullets and live ammunition, reminded Palestinians of the two intifadas of 1987 and 2000.

Mohamed Daraghma, the Ramallah-based journalist and writer, told Xinhua that the current tension in the West Bank is different from the previous two intifadas, adding "I call it a violent intifada targeting individuals."

"What happens in cities and refugee camps is a reactive intifada and is due to Israeli actions, such as violations at the al-Aqsa mosque and settlers' assaults," he said, adding "an intifada has to be a serious populous and more organized move."

He clarified that the current tension "is called a singular intifada without leadership steering or directing it through daily programs and activities," adding "it is erroneous to call the current tensions a new intifada."

Daraghma also said Palestinians "will not support a well-organized intifada with huge numbers as in the previous two, because they lost hope that intifadas lead to an end of military occupation." Palestinians fear it will merely be disorder and chaos.

He also said there is an absence of well-organized factions with the ability to lead a comprehensive popular intifada.

Hamas doesn't have enough power to lead an intifada in the West Bank and Fatah doesn't want to lead an intifada.

Palestinian officials warned that a third popular intifada may break out due to the failure of the peace process with its negative influence on the security situation, amid growing despair amongst the population and difficult living conditions.

The previous two intifadas failed to end the Israeli military occupation of the West Bank, although Palestinians used weapons and rockets against Israel, mainly in the second intifada.

Over 5,000 Palestinians and 500 Israelis were killed in approximately 140 attacks between 2000 and 2007.

YOUTH MOVEMENT & WEAKNESS

Mahdi Abdul Hadi, head of the Palestinian Academy for International Affairs in Jerusalem, agreed with Daraghma that what is happening in the West Bank and in Jerusalem "can never be called a comprehensive popular intifada, but rather a sporadic youths' mobilization."

"Palestinian youths represent around 60 percent of Palestinian society. They don't belong to any factions with most being non believers, carrying slogans declaring their lack of trust and absent loyalty to anyone," said Abdul Hadi.

He added "the youths are more concerned with their living conditions, escalating Israeli measures on their lands and the holy site. Therefore, what we see is individual youths reaction without reference nor leadership funding these activities."

Meanwhile, Palestinians suffer from a currently significantly severe weak status amid endless divisions between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, started in 2007.

The Gaza Strip was spared confrontation with Israel since the end of last summer's Israeli war on the enclave.

The large-scale Israeli military air and ground operations waged on the Gaza Strip for 50 days ended August 26, with over 2,200 Palestinians and 70 Israelis dead, 11,000 casualties, and significant destruction of housing and infrastructure.

In the West Bank, populations complained that over half a million Israeli settlers lived in over 120 settlements, with intensive Israeli army checkpoints spread all over the territory in addition to difficult living conditions.

However, this won't launch a new intifada.

Palestinians in the West Bank and Jerusalem are currently undergoing an Apartheid regime imposed by Israel on them," said Abdul Hadi, adding "the worst situations are in the West Bank and Jerusalem where residents defend themselves alone against settlers and soldier assaults."

NO POLITICAL DECISION FOR ESCALATION

Palestinian leadership was quick to blame Israel for the current tensions. Palestinian officials said the attacks launched by young Palestinians lacked coordination and were all taken without a political decree.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas declared in his speech to the UN General Assembly September 30 that Palestinians won't commit to any of the peace accords reached with Israel since the latter is breaching them.

Israeli radio reported that despite the tense situation in the West Bank, security coordination between Israel and the Palestinian National Authority (PNA) is still ongoing.

Hani el-Masri, a West Bank-based political analyst, told Xinhua that "Palestinian leadership won't support another intifada fearing it will become chaotic, and that Israel will use military weapons against the West Bank population."

"It is clear that both Israel and the Palestinians are not interested in another intifada," said el-Masri, adding that he doesn't believe there will be a third intifada. Endit