News Analysis: Russia appears determined to have stronger foothold in Syria

The Russian leadership has recently upped its military support to the Syrian government, a move reflecting Moscow's determination to intervene more in the course of the Syrian conflict, analysts said.

Russian officials have recently stressed that Moscow will continue providing military aid to Damascus, noting that the military support will be accompanied by Russian specialists.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Sunday that "there were military supplies, they are ongoing and they will continue. They are inevitably accompanied by Russian specialists, who help to adjust the equipment, to train Syrian personnel how to use these weaponry."

The Russians made it clear that the military aid is aimed at combating terrorism in accordance with the international law.

Firearms, grenade launchers and armored personnel carriers are included in the military supplies that Russia is sending to Syria, which is reeling under four years of conflict and intense battles between the Syrian troops and an array of ultra-radical groups, mainly the Islamic State (IS) militants.

While some of Damascus officials said the military supplies are part of impending arm deals that have for long been signed between both countries, also the Russians saying they are for fighting the terrorist groups, the latest developments have apparently sparked the attention of the U.S. administration.

The Pentagon said it had tracked a total of 15 Russian Antonov-124 Condor flights into Syria, reflecting a steady stream of military cargo into the country.

According to latest U.S. intelligence, the cargo also included tanks, as reports said massive Condor flights carrying all kinds of supplies arrive twice a day through Iran and Iraq into Bassel Al-Assad International Airport.

Other reports said the Russians are also preparing an airbase in Syria's coastal city of Latakia, more specifically near the Bassel al-Assad Airport in the countryside of Latakia, the hometown of President Bashar al-Assad and the heartland of his Alawite minority.

"The fresh Russian rhetoric is new in terms of its momentum, strength and increasing frequency," Osama Danura, a Syrian political analyst, told Xinhua.

He said several reasons could be behind the stepped-up military support to Syria.

One of the reasons is that the Russian leadership's frustration with the regional countries' attitude toward the expansion of terrorism in Syria, Danura said, referring to the regional anti-terror alliance that was proposed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, which was planned to group Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Syria.

The Russian initiative was welcomed by Damascus, whose officials said it needs a miracle given the fact that both Saudi Arabia and Turkey are regarded as patrons of the rebels in Syria.

As the initiative seemed to be born dead, the Russians wanted to personally up their support to Syria to face the ultra-radical groups, such as the IS.

"The countries, which the Russian leadership wanted to lobby in order to create a regional anti-terror coalition, are apparently unwilling to join the fight against IS and here I am talking clearly about Turkey and Saudi Arabia," Danura said. "So the Russian leadership's frustration with those countries ... have pushed Moscow to step in more clearly."

He said that the Russians have read the regional and international climate carefully and decided that it's the ripe time to change the equations in the region, because the United States has reached a "dead-end" in its regional policies and seems to be withdrawing gradually from being so involved in the regional issues, especially as Washington is entering the year of the presidential elections.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey are also in political impasses, he said, noting that "Saudi Arabia is sinking in its war on Yemen and Turkey is also embroiled in its battles with the Kurdish Kurdistan Party, known as PKK, not to mention the political crisis both countries are suffering from."

"All of these factors have encouraged the Russians to turn the table and change the equations," Danura said, adding that Russia's support "would empower its negotiation stance in the region from the prospect of reaching a political solution to the regional crisis and not from the prospect of breaking bones or to prove a point."

"So when other parties maintain their adamant stances, a more powerful Russian strategic presence seems extremely necessary to push the countries that support the terror group to soften their stance and shift their positions toward finding political solutions to the crisis," he added.

Danura and other analysts agreed that the growing Russian presence in Syria also aims to send messages to influential regional players, mainly Turkey, whose buffer zone plan in Syria will be largely threatened by the new Russian military gears.

"We are hearing about the arrival of new missile system to Syria, which is a clear message to the Turks and their plan to impose a buffer zone in northern Syria and the repetitive attacks of Israel. These decisive messages are also for the United States to coordinate its strikes with Russia to avoid any mistakes," he said.

"All of the current signs indicate that the Russians are determined to change the current landscape in Syria," he said.

As Russia has already a naval base in Syria, and is already known to be a main international ally to Syria, analysts said the Russian support seems so natural, especially when some of the regional countries are still supporting the rebels in Syria.

"The current Russian stance is integrated with the previous Russian stances and it comes as part of the calls of President Putin on countering terrorism. The arm deals are old and Russia is implementing them now in accordance with the international law," Hayan Salman, another Syrian political expert, told Xinhua.

Aside from the declared military support, Russia has also stepped up naval training exercises off the Syrian coast and is preparing for more drills next week off the coast of Tartus, where its naval base is located.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insists that Russian navy exercises in the Mediterranean are routine, but Salman said they could also be messages to the West.

"(That) the Russians have decided to carry out war games in the Mediterranean is a clear message to the U.S. that there is a strong Russian presence in this sea, and I think Russia has the right to carry out this naval exercises to prove itself and its presence in the region," said Hayan, who is also deputy of the Syrian Economy Minister.

Meanwhile, Hmaidi Abdullah, a political researcher, has played down the "hype" about a stepped-up Russian military aid.

"I think this hype about the presence of the Russians is something created by the U.S.. In fact, there is no additional Russian military presence in Syria. The humanitarian aid has for long been reaching Syria from Russia. The Russian experts have also been here for so long and their presence here has not been interrupted not even during the worst times when Damascus itself was threatened with car bombs and street battles," Abdullah said.

He said if there is an extra presence for the Russian experts, it's because the Russian leadership has recently implemented a number of impending arm deals with Syria.

"Those deals were frozen for many political reasons, mainly the Russian desire not to anger the United States. So it's a common sense that when they send new weapons, they send along experts to teach the Syrian cadres how to use them."

The Russians could have increased their military personnel in Syria because of the naval exercises, he said, adding that the Russian plans to carry out war games come in the context of strengthening its presence in the region, regardless of the issue of the Syrian crisis.

"Given the fact that the war games are taking place in such a delicate time and given the fact that the security measures must be taken for the protection of the site, the Russians have increased the number of personnel that will take care of protection, especially that the Syrian army is now stretched out on several battlefields, which could explain the extra presence of Russian military personnel," he added.

About the U.S. concerns, Abdullah said the U.S. hype about the increased Russian presence has nothing to do with the presence of experts, because America has more than 3,000 experts in Iraq.

He noted that the U.S. fear about the new Russian arms and involvement will affect its policies in squeezing the Syrian regime to give up. Endit