Roundup: Experts optimistic about Poland's economy outlook

Recent reports and analysis of both foreign and domestic experts reveal the optimistic development direction of Poland's economy in 2015 and 2016.

In the latest edition of "World Economic Outlook" report, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Poland's results are very well, while in January's edition the Polish economy growth was estimated at 3.0 percent in 2015 and 3.3 percent in 2016, the April edition sees it at the rate of 3.5 percent in each year.

Such a result is the best within the Middle and Eastern Europe region, placing Poland in the forefront, before the Czech Republic, Slovakia or Hungary.

The experts of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) in the July edition of their report seem to agree on the general tendency, assessing the average GDP growth in years 2015-2017 at the average rate of 3.6 percent.

Another report, published by the Institute for Market Economic, a Polish non-governmental think tank, reveals that the Polish GDP growth will be respectively 3.5 percent in 2015 and up to 3.8 percent in 2016.

According to the Institute for Market Economic, the growth in domestic demand in 2015 will be the same as year before, that is at 4.4 percent.

At the same time, the influx of European funds for financing infrastructure projects will be a contributive factor for the investments, however it is the domestic demand which will be a crucial drive for Poland's economic growth, the report says.

Professor Andrzej Slawinski, the head of the NBP Economic Institute and a member of the Council of Monetary Policies, said that "The Polish economy has been on the path of sustainable growth for a long time now. What it lacked, however, was a better situation in the euro zone and the European Union, as 91 percent of Polish export goes to European markets."

Another optimistic trend for the country's economy is the lowering of unemployment rate, which is supposed to go below 10 percent by the end of 2016. This trend will be accompanied by the growing employment rate, which will subsequently grow around 1.4 percent in 2015 and 1.7 percent in 2016 on the overall scale.

As far as Poland's trade is concerned, the Institute for Market Economic report predicts the export growth in 2015 will stay at 6.2 percent, while the import at 7.5 percent.

"The situation of Polish foreign trade will be mostly shaped by the situation within the European Union, so the speeding of Polish export up to the forecasted level in the years 2015-2016 is conditioned by the improving of the economic situation of its most important trade partner countries," the report sums up.

The Polish government has recently adapted assumptions for the budget project aimed at 2016.

The assumptions are optimist, but possible to achieve, the experts said, with the GDP growth of 3.8 percent and annual average inflation of 1.7 percent.

Polish Finance Minister Mateusz Szczurek believes that the governmental prognosis of this year's and next year's GDP growth are rather conservative.

"All the time we can observe a strong investments growth while the public sector's influence constantly lowers. From the macroeconomic point of view, it is a natural and a right tendency," he said.

While the assumptions for next year are being prepared, the Polish Ministry of Agriculture boasts on Poland selling food at the record level of 25 billion euros (about 27 billion U.S. dollars) this year.

Agriculture Minister Marek Sawicki has recently informed that since January until May 2015, the total value of agri-food products export was 9.3 billion euros, which means a growth of about 480 million euros, or 5.5 percent growth in comparison with the same period a year before.

Apart from the stable export to the EU countries, Poland is currently exporting to 73 foreign markets, including the rapidly growing export to Asia, the Middle East and Africa. (1 euro = 1.09 U.S. dollars) Endit