Interview: Iranians optimistic about nuclear talks: expert

Days ahead of the July 7 deadline, Iranian negotiators and officials started talking about hope, solution and optimism, u-turning from before the talks when gaps, redlines and Western excessive demands were the key words.

Sadeq Zibakalam, a veteran political analyst respected for his outspokenness, attributes this optimism to the general consensus among Iranians, even hardliners, the necessity and urgency of solving the nuclear issue to end sanctions, in an exclusive interview with Xinhua on Thursday.

Opposition to nuclear negotiators peaked just days before the new round of talks began in Vienna at the end of June, when hardliners pushed through a bill in Iranian parliament to write into law the redlines of nuclear talks, such as immediate and total removal of sanctions, denial of inspections into military sites and maintenance of nuclear research and development.

But Iranian hardliners quieted down, as Iran and P5+1, the United States, Britain, France, Russia, China plus Germany, carry on into the final stage of the talks in Vienna.

The hardliners use a lot of rhetoric and slogans on the face, but deep down they are wise enough to know that if no agreement can be reached, the prospect will be very bleak for Iran. "They will not use their muscle to block Zarif's efforts in Vienna," Zibakalam said.

WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY

The reason why even hardliners in Iran have become wise and prudent on nuclear talks is that they feel the U.S. government is eager to solve the nuclear issue, a rare opportunity to end the crippling sanctions, Zibakalam said.

The Obama administration hopes to build the nuclear talks into a major diplomatic success. Over the past two years, the U.S. government has helped unfrozen billions of dollars of Iranian assets abroad under the 2013 interim agreement and forestalled multiple attempts in Congress to ramp up sanctions against Iran, warning that doing so could sink the fragile negotiations process.

However, the opportunity carries an expiry date. The U.S. Congress has set July 9 as its deadline in the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, when the Obama administration must deliver a copy of the deal to U.S. lawmakers, who will have a month to examine it.

Obama said Tuesday that he would walk away from a bad deal, pointing specifically to ongoing disagreements over inspections of Iran's nuclear sites, saying that without assurances that a way toward building nuclear weapons is blocked, there will be no deal.

He added that inspections would need to be vigorous and targeted and that any agreement cannot simply depend on declarations from Iran that it is sticking to the deal.

Whatever its motive, the U.S. government wants to solve the nuclear issue. But there are serious contentions between the government and the congress, the democrats and republicans and much pressure from U.S. allies in Middle East too, Zibakalam said.

"If Iran misses this opportunity, nobody knows when the window will be open again," Zibakalam said.

AVOIDING REDLINES

However, it is no easy job for the Iranians to take the opportunity without treading on any of the red lines set by Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khameinei.

For sanctions, the redline is clear: all should be lifted immediately when the deal is struck. Zibakalam has a more feasible explanation of this seemingly impossible hurdle. "What the supreme leader meant were all the sanctions that can practically be lifted," he said.

Khameinei knows lifting some sanctions needs approval from the U.S. congress, others from the European parliament, still more from the UN Security Council. What Iran really wants to be immediately lifted are those sanctions within the hands of the U.S. government, Zibakalam said.

Inspection of military sites is another sensitive issue that both sides cannot afford to give in. But Zibakalam believes a mechanism satisfying to all can be worked out.

"To my knowledge, they are building up an arbitrary committee to review the UN nuclear watch dog's requests to inspect sensitive Iranian sites," he said.

An impartial committee, approved by Iran, the U.S. and other world powers, will review the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) request to inspect in Iran under the additional protocol of the NPT, preventing the inspections to threaten Iran's non-nuclear secrets and security, he said.

Visiting Yukiya Amano, chief of IAEA, reached agreement on a timetable for cooperation after meeting with Iranian President Rouhani and Ali Shamkhani, head Iran's Supreme National Security Council, in Tehran, Iranian media reported, suggesting progress on the cooperation between Iran and the UN nuclear watchdog.

Many major problems of the nuclear issue have been solved in the past two years, such as the number of centrifuges, the level and amount of enrichment, the Arak heavy water reactor, Fordow and Natanz nuclear facilities and more. "Only few outstanding issues remain, I believe they will be solved in the next few days," Zibakalam said. Endit