Roundup: Parliament speaker election may pave way for snap elections in Turkey

The election of parliament speaker on Wednesday in the final and fourth round of voting that showed no compromise among all four political parties may signal a snap election is on the way in November in Turkey.

The way the speaker got elected in parliament and his political affiliation indicate that coalition talks to form a new government will be a difficult process, Cengiz Candar, a political analyst, said.

"We can prepare our minds for a renewed election before the year is out," he said.

For the election of the speaker, all four parties nominated their own candidates. The Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has more seats than any other parties, secured the win for its own candidate only in the fourth and final round of voting.

Three opposition parties might have endorsed a compromise candidate to beat AKP yet they failed to strike a deal.

Former Defense Minister Ismet Yilmaz, the AKP candidate, was elected speaker with 258 votes, all cast by lawmakers from his own party.

During his short victory speech, Yimaz promised to be independent and impartial, saying the nation wants the parliament to address problems and draft a new constitution.

The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which has 80 deputies in the parliament, tried in vain to convince all opposition parties to endorse its own candidate against AKP.

That cleared the way for the AKP candidate to get the speaker position in the final round.

Now that the speaker is elected, people's attention is turned to formation of the next government.

MANY EXPECT SHORT-LIVED COALITION GOVERNMENT

The AKP, as the leading party, will get the first try at forming a coalition government. No political party has enough seats to form a single-party government in Turkey after the AKP lost its majority in the June 7 elections.

Many in Turkey expect a new coalition government, even if it can be formed, will be short-lived.

The most probable coalition scenario seems to be one to be forged between the AKP and the MHP after the latter effectively handed over the speaker position to the AKP on Wednesday.

"If all other alternatives are spent and political instability rears its ugly head, then God willing we won't leave Turkey in the hands of scoundrels; we won't shirk our responsibility," MHP leader Devlet Bahceli told fellow deputies on Wednesday, signaling a green light to coalition talks.

Another likely scenario is a coalition between the AKP and center-left Republican Peoples' Party (CHP).

CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu said on Wednesday that the party laid out 14 principles as preconditions to enter into a coalition with the AKP that requires, among others, reopening of corruption investigations and limiting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's role.

The MHP also insists on similar demands with the addition of killing the government-launched settlement process with Kurds.

"It is now clear that just two coalition options are acknowledged by all parties," Murat Yetkin, an analyst, said, referring to AKP-CHP or AKP-MHP coalition.

"If this cannot happen, the only remaining option would be to repeat the election, probably in November," he remarked.

SNAP ELECTION LIKELY IN NOVEMBER

Selahattin Demirtas, leader of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP), said on Wednesday that a new election might be necessary now to put pieces into together in politics.

In the June 7 elections, the HDP peeled away some support from the AKP and won 80 seats in parliament.

The AKP, for its part, hopes to regain its strength in a snap election by wooing voters who defected, especially Kurdish voters.

However, Kadri Gursel, a columnist with Milliyet daily, ruled out the possibility that the AKP may win back Kurdish voters in early elections.

Polls also suggest the picture would not change much even if Turkey holds another parliamentary election.

Ozer Sencer, a Turkish pollster, said his findings indicate that snap elections would not generate results much different from those of the last election.

That means Turkey has entered a new phase in politics that require coalition-forming governance that is not easy to do, given the lack of compromise culture in Turkish politics.

MINORITY GOVERNMENT LESS LIKELY

There is one additional option on the table, although it seem less likely. If no coalition is formed, Turkey may be governed by a minority government for some time.

However, President Erdogan said he is opposed to such a government because it would not serve Turkey's interests.

Erdogan is reportedly seeking a snap election because he thinks the AKP could regain its parliamentary majority and help him succeed in his long-held dream of becoming an executive president with a constitutional amendment.

The current constitution gives the president largely a ceremonial role while the government is run by the prime minister. Endit