Spotlight: Syria risks fragmentation as landscape shattered by flaring wars

As the long-running Syrian conflict is further drowning into militarization, with each party fighting to hold more ground, the country's current situation is worsening and likely heading toward actual fragmentation, analysts said.

Taking a look at the battles' map in Syria, one could easily conclude that all conflicting parties are ferociously fighting to hold more ground and draw a map to their control.

The Islamic State (IS) group has recently expanded its battles to reach more areas in Syria, capturing much of the Syrian Desert, in the hope of connecting areas under its control in the eastern province of Deir al-Zour with central Syria.

The al-Qaida-linked Nusra Front, another major group, has also stretched to capture more terrain from the Syrian forces, focusing on taking the province of Idlib, and continuing that progress to reach areas in the central part of the country.

Its battles to reach the al-Ghab Plains in the central province of Hama are a sign of that expansionist vision.

Aside from the radical groups, the Syrian military forces have recently been engaged in battles with the help of the Lebanese Hezbollah group to secure the vicinity of the capital and its northern countryside of Qalamoun region, which are largely inhabited by loyalists to President Bashar al-Assad.

"It's clear that the Syrian arena is witnessing a high level of military showdown nowadays," Anas Joudeh, a Syrian opposition figure said, referring to the flaring battles in northern and southern Syria, where the Syrian army suffered setbacks.

"The terrorist groups such as IS and the Nusra Front keep on advancing in a large number of areas and that is because of the direct regional support to such groups," Joudeh added.

On the other hand, "we see a military push by the Syrian government and the loyal forces to consolidate its positions," he noted.

He added the entire military showdown nowadays comes in the same context, which is "solidifying positions," adding that all conflicting parties are working to take control of more territories to empower their stance in any possible settlement.

By observing the recent developments in Syria, Joudeh said the situation is moving toward a near-actual geographic fragmentation of the country based on the power balances on ground between the conflicting parties.

"Syria today is in an imminent danger and the near collapse has become closer," he warned, noting that if the Syrian state collapsed, it would not probably resurrect for decades, not only years."

To save Syria from this scenario, true political solution must be reached, because "the current measures undertaken by the Syrian government are not enough."

Syria needs a "political solution more than ever, we need to work on a serious political change on Syria inside to rebuild a new legitimacy that allows the Syrians to embrace the new authority and allows also the international community to cooperate with the new Syrian legitimacy to fight the terrorist organizations."

Osama Danura, a political expert, said the situation on the Syrian arena has become characterized with the expansion of IS militants and the Nusra Front along with other less important jihadist groups into larger swathes of territory, as some opposition groups said that the IS alone is in control of over 50 percent of Syria.

"True that the IS controls areas that don't have a demographic weight because they are largely deserts, but we cannot also underestimate the importance of other areas under the control of IS and Nusra, especially the oil-rich ones," he said.

Danura said the expansion of the ultra-radical groups in Syria is a main reason behind the worsening situation in Syria, noting that such expansion is eclipsing prospects of political solution and poses a threat to other neighboring countries as well "because the terrorist expansion is a cross-border problem now."

The Islamic State (IS) militants, who started under the name of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, are now present in Yemen and Libya and many other areas around the world, he added.

Danura said it's not correct anymore to portray the Syrian crisis as a battle between an adamant government and democracy seekers, but an all-out war between the global terrorism and the Syrian and Iraqi military forces.

He noted that if the Syrian and Iraqi forces were not provided with the right support in the face of terrorism, the region would witness the targeting of other countries' military forces.

Due to the expansion of terror group, the Syrian state needs cooperation with the countries that don't support terrorism, Danura remarked.

"The Syrian government alone, without the help of the countries that denounce terrorism, will not be able to contain the most explosive areas," he stressed. Endit