News Analysis: British Conservatives enjoy surprise election win, face challenges of governing

The Conservative Party has won a narrow outright victory in the British general election, a success which surprised everybody but which now gives it the freedom to govern without a coalition partner.

Patrick Dunleavy, professor of political science at the London School of Economics (LSE), said the Conservatives had won by destroying Liberal Democrat support.

"It looks as though there has been a late surge to the Tories, and ... the Tories have essentially eviscerated the Liberal Democrats," said Dunleavy.

Professor Charlie Beckett, head of the department of media and communications at the LSE, said that the Conservative victory pointed to a successful campaign by the party.

However, there had been little difference in support for the two main parties since January right up to the day of the election, according to opinion polls, and Beckett believed the whole election campaign, by all parties, had achieved little.

He pointed to a poll released by Lord Ashcroft Polls after the election closed, which showed that a significant minority of voters decided which parties to vote for very late in the campaign.

Beckett said of the Ashcroft results, "The evidence seems to be there was a late shift. 20-30 percent of people did not make their minds up until the last week and 11 percent of people made up their minds on the day. That is an extraordinary narrative."

For Beckett, the decisions made by voters after an unconvincing campaign boiled down to which of the parties did they trust more?

"People were left with the choice ... a fundamental trust thing -- who do you trust in an uncertain world where your real incomes have not increased, where there are signs that the economy in terms of figures has improved but not for you personally. Who do you go for? All the evidence tells us from the past is that 'who do people trust?' -- the Conservatives."

DOMESTIC POLICY

Despite the narrowness of Prime Minister David Cameron's majority in the House of Commons, he is now solely in charge of government and does not have to take into consideration any coalition partners.

Dr Alexandre Alonso, a lecturer in politics at King's College London, told Xinhua that Cameron's victory gave the prime minister a strong hand.

"It is certainly going to strengthen what the Conservatives had started in terms of economic policy, austerity, and welfare reform. So, they will really feel very emboldened by the mandate given by the electorate to continue the policy course that they had started since 2010," said Alonso.

Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University London, told Xinhua, that election pledges to protect spending in some areas would be central to government spending policy.

"There is not very much money around and they have made quite big promises on health and education which they are going to have to keep," said Bale.

CHALLENGES

The Conservatives now face the challenge of governing with a slim majority. This would require discipline from all MPs.

Bale said, "It is not a huge win in terms of seats ... It is also true to say that in terms of the vote share across the country the majority of people in the UK did not vote for this government. So, they are going to have to be a little bit careful in posing some of the policies some of the Conservative backbenchers would like to see."

Cameron also faces the challenge of managing his relationship with the European Union (EU) while holding a referendum on continued British membership of the EU while many of his MPs are keen to quit.

"Cameron has promised a referendum on whether the country should stay inside the EU or leave. There are a lot of backbenchers inside the Conservative Party who would like to see this country leave so he is going to have to cope with that particular issue as well," said Bale.

Britain has also now split politically, with Scotland rejecting the main parties and voting almost wholly for the pro-independence Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP).

"What we have is essentially a divided country with quite a clear majority for the Conservatives in England and a watershed for the SNP in Scotland," said Alonso.

"We don't really know what is going to happen but even major Conservative figures such as Boris Johnson have already talked about a broad discussion about a federal Britain and devolving more power to Scotland, also as a way to prevent a stronger impulse for the independence movement in Scotland."

Cameron will also face challenges to his leadership from within his own party, although not immediately.

Before the election he said he would not stand for prime minister for a third time, which would be in 2020.

Bale said, "That means that leadership speculation is bound to start, if not now then in a couple of years' time. So there will be colleagues who will be maneuvering throughout the next parliament to replace him." Endit