News Analysis: U.S. defense chief's visit to Seoul adds controversy to THAAD deployment

U.S. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter on Thursday arrived in South Korea, the second leg of his first Asian tour since he took office in February. After finishing the three-day tour to Japan, one of the two major U.S. allies in Asia along with South Korea, he flied over to Seoul.

During his three-day stay here, Carter is scheduled to hold face-to-face talks with his South Korean counterpart Han Min-koo Friday and meet with other government officials. He will also spend time encouraging about 28,500 U.S. forces stationed here.

Even before his arrival, a wave of speculative reports on the real intention behind Carter's visit poured out of local news outlets. Carter is known to have strongly advocated missile defense, citing nuclear and missile threats from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

The visit of Carter, a famous "hawk" on missile defense, added fuels here to the already-inflamed controversy over the deployment of the advanced U.S. missile defense system, called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD), on the Korean Peninsula.

The South Korean Defense Ministry has said that the THAAD issue will not be on the agenda during Friday talks between Han and Carter, seeking to calm controversy. The missile defense was not on the agenda as well during the dialogue between South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Choi Yun-hee and his U.S. counterpart Martin Dempsey, who visited Seoul for three days from March 26, the ministry said.

Seoul has maintained the so-called "strategic ambiguity" on the issue, which is billed as "three Nos" -- No Request, No consultation and No decision. It means that there has been no request from the U.S. and no consultations between Seoul and Washington over the issue, so no decision has been made yet.

News organizations, however, continued casting doubts about the explanation following the successive visits by high-ranking U.S. military officials. Local daily newspaper Hankyoreh forecast last week that Carter would have a "natural" chance to raise the THAAD issue during formal or informal meetings with South Korean government or military officials.

Local broadcaster Yonhap News TV made the similar prediction, saying Monday that the THAAD deployment may be discussed informally or indirectly when the two defense chiefs discuss ways of countering possible nuclear and missile threats from the DPRK.

DIVIDED OVER THAAD EFFECTIVENSS

The United States has wanted to deploy one or more THAAD batteries on the Korean Peninsula as part of the so-called "Asia pivot" strategy. Just before heading for Japan, Carter said at Arizona State University Monday that he will help the Obama administration open a new phase of its strategic "rebalance" toward Asia.

Leaving behind a political approach to the issue, doubts were cast about the military and security effectiveness of the THAAD. Rep. Shim Jae-kwon of the main opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy was quoted by local media MediaToday as saying Tuesday that the U.S. missile defense system "is not an appropriate tool to defeat a North Korean (DPRK) missile attack" as the THAAD was designed to intercept missiles at higher altitude.

The DPRK's long-range artillery, including multiple rocket launchers, and short-range missiles have been known to be capable of striking Seoul within one minute as well as the entire South Korean territory within 10 minutes. The DPRK military reportedly owns at least 700 short-range attack missiles, which fly at an altitude of less than 20 km.

The THAAD, developed by the U.S. defense company Lockheed Martin, is designed to shoot down missiles at an altitude of 40- 150 km. South Korea is developing its own missile defense technology, called Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD), to intercept missiles at an altitude of less than 40 km.

Shim said that there is no reason for the DPRK to use medium- and long-range missiles, which are required to fly high into the sky before falling down to the target, as it already has short- range missiles that can strike the South Korean territory at a much faster pace.

Under the situation, in which South Korea has yet to build up defense capability against such short-range missiles from the DPRK, it would be currently unjustifiable to argue for the THAAD deployment, Shim said, noting that the THAAD deployment is not an urgent issue for South Korea's security and defense.

Ruling Saenuri Party lawmakers, who recently raised the need for the THAAD deployment, have stressed the need for a multi- layered missile defense system, which means that if the first layer of interceptors fail, the second layer still has a chance of shooting down attackers. Lockheed Martin has asserted that the THAAD has an accuracy rate of 90 percent.

"While the manufacturer of THAAD system claims 90 percent accuracy of the system, they have not tested it in an environment similar to the Korean Peninsula," said Kim Dong-yup, research fellow at University of North Korean Studies, in a report.

"The issue of placing a several-hundred-million-dollar weapon on the peninsula, one that is intricately associated with the lives and safety of the Korean people, must undergo thorough and comprehensive review before blindly trusting the words of the manufacturing company," he said.

CONCERNS ABOUT HIGH COSTS, SAFETY

There is another thorny issue surrounding the potential THAAD deployment on the peninsula that would impose a significant financial burden on South Korea. One THAAD battery is reportedly composed of six mobile launchers and 48 interceptors as well as airborne radar and firing control system, the total of which is estimated at around two trillion won (1.8 billion U.S. dollars).

"There is a larger issue of maintenance expense after THAAD is deployed (though not purchased). To believe that the United States, which is struggling with defense budget cuts, will cover the entire costs of THAAD deployment, operation and maintenance is likely to be wishful thinking on our part," said Kim.

The THAAD deployment may cause social conflicts and spread anti- American sentiment among South Koreans as its X-band radar emits strong radio waves doing harm to human bodies and paralyzing electronic devices.

The X-band radar, also called AN/TPY-2 radar, acts as an eye of the THAAD. It detects and tracks ballistic missiles through the X- band frequency range. It is comprised of Forward Based Mode (FBM) and Terminal Mode (TM) that are the same in hardware and different in software and communication systems.

As the two modes have the same hardware, South Korea could convert the TM radar with a maximum detectable range of 600 km into the FBM radar capable of detecting targets as far as 1,800 km, if the country introduces the THAAD, local newspaper Seoul Shinmun reported Tuesday, citing the U.S. Army's technical report titled " AN/TPY-2 FBM Radar Operations."

The X-band radar can be deployed within a short period and can be moved via cargo planes, but it needs a vast area of land to install key equipment, measuring 281 meters wide and 94.5 meters long that equal the combined size of four soccer fields.

It emits super-strong radio waves, paralyzing vehicles, mobile phones, PCs and airplanes within 5.5 km as well as doing damage to human bodies. Due to the harmful effects, the U.S. Army deployed its THAAD battery in Guam, surrounded by sea, and in the middle of the desert in Texas. If the THAAD battery is deployed in South Korea, the radar should stand northward and would highly likely face a densely populated region.

Local broadcaster JTBC reported Tuesday that public rage was aroused in cities mentioned as a candidate site for the THAAD deployment, including Busan and Daegu in the country's southeast, as the mentioning can drag down housing prices. The broadcaster cautioned that if the THAAD is forcibly deployed without social consensus, it may escalate anti-American sentiment and lead to campaigns for the withdrawal of U.S. Forces from the country. Endi