News Analysis: Hard choices to face Netanyahu despite surprise election victory

It has been quite a surprise that Israel's incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could make such a stunning victory in Tuesday's parliamentary elections.

According to the latest ballot counting, the Israeli leader won one fourth of the 120 seats of the Knesset (parliament), six seats more than what his key rival Isaac Herzog gained, leaving pollsters who failed to predict his re-election in rather embarrassing situation.

Earlier polls showed that Netanyahu might hand over the post to Herzog, leader of the center-left Zionist Union.

But unlike the pre-election polls, Netanyahu seemed to solidify his chance to serve a fourth term as Israel's prime minister, a new political record in the country.

There are two apparent explanations for Netanyahu's unforeseen victory, the accuracy of the polls and Netanyahu's last-minute campaign, analysts said

BIASED OPINION POLLS

Prof. Avi Dagani, owner and president of Geocartography Knowledge research group, thinks the polls done by Israeli media outlets in recent weeks, which favored Isaac Herzog's Zionist Union camp, were biased in their methodology and their geographical segmentation.

Some pollsters used the Internet, which is biased towards the center-left Israeli public, Dagani, who conducted telephone surveys exclusively and was the only pollster to predict a victory for Netanyahu, said in a conference call with foreign reporters on Wednesday.

"The Internet does not represent the state of Israel and the people of Israel. In the Internet there are panels that are biased towards the center-left, situated around Tel Aviv with better education, who are more prone to use this form of communication," he explained.

"I believe those who live in the periphery, who have a stronger tendency to vote for the Likud, were very poorly represented in those polls," he added.

He also believes the pollsters failed to analyze those who were hesitant and decided on their votes on the election day, an estimated ten to 15 percent of Israeli voters.

NETANYAHU'S EFFECTIVE LAST-MINUTE CAMPAIGN

In addition to the inaccuracy of the polls that underestimated the actual support for the Likud's, Prof. Dagani believes that Netanyahu succeeded in squeezing many votes from other right-wing satellite parties days before the elections started.

Over the past week, Netanyahu warned that a left-wing government would make far-reaching concessions to the Palestinians, stressing that no Palestinian state would be established if he was reelected.

The campaign apparently worked and affected many traditional right-wing voters based on the results of the race.

In a well-crafted media campaign, using fear tactics, he blamed the Israeli media for its left wing bias against him and accused the left of orchestrating a coup against him with funding from European bodies, though he provided no evidence for his claims.

"Many people who saw the last poll giving the Zionist Union 24 over the Likud's 21 seats, who were politically allied with the right wing Likud for many years, got scared that the left may win," Prof. Dagani explained, adding many voters decided to vote for the Likud in the past week, amid Netanyahu's scare tactics campaign.

WHAT NEXT FOR NETANYAHU'S GOVERNMENT

With the victory at hand, it is very likely that Netanyahu will be asked to form the next government as his right-wing allies, the ultra-orthodox parties and former Likud Minister Moshe Kahlon's Kulanu Party can give him a majority of 67 seats in the parliament.

But what will be the prospects for such a right-wing government, at a time in which Israel is facing growing isolation in the international arena, as well as deteriorating relations with its closest ally, the United States?

"If after a failed war and economic hardships, as well as corruption allegations, Netanyahu comes on top this means the status quo in Israel is the victory of the right wing," Prof. Guy Ben Porat, political science expert at the Ben Gurion University in Be'er, Sheva told Xinhua Wednesday.

He also believes a right-wing government would not be able to sustain itself for its full four-year term.

"If Netanyahu builds this coalition with the right wing, the ultra-orthodox and the support of Kahlon, he will have to comply with difficult pressures from the outside which could cause his coalition to crumble," Ben Porat said.

However, he added that if Netanyahu wants his government to survive he would have to make efforts to put the center-left in his government.

"If Netanyahu wants to survive, he has to make comprises and establish a wider, more center-oriented government," the expert said.

He also said that U.S. President Barack Obama has nothing to lose and will want to settle his unfinished score with Netanyahu, especially after his Congress speech.

The expert added that the European Union would not tolerate a narrow right-wing government that would continue to build in the West Bank settlements and may impose boycotts on Israel.

"Israel will pay a heavy price for these outcomes," he added. Endit