News Analysis: Modest gains expected for U.S. stock market in 2015

U.S. stocks surged to close at record highs Monday, with the Nasdaq Composite Index soaring above the round-number mark of 5,000 points for the first time since March 2000, as investors meditated on downbeat economic data and an interest rate cut in China.

The Nasdaq on Monday went up 44.57 points to close at 5,008.10. The tech-heavy index set its all-time high of 5,132.52 points on March 10, 2000, when it closed at a record high of 5,048.62 points on the same day.

The Dow closed at its all-time high of 18,288.63 points Monday, up 155.93 points, setting its fourth closing record for 2015. The S&P 500 ended at its fifth record close for the year, up 12.89 points, or 0.61 points, to 2,117.39.

Adding positive sentiment to the market, the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, on Saturday announced that it would cut the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) starting March 1.

"In my opinion, I do believe that we will experience modest gains again this year," Keith Bliss, Senior Vice President of Cuttone & Co., a broker dealer, told Xinhua.

The U.S. equity markets have been on a record breaking run to new all-time highs, with the S&P 500 going up a stunning 68.1 percent from the beginning of 2011 to now.

U.S. stocks closed the month of February on a strong note Friday, as data showed the U.S. economy regained moderate growth in the fourth quarter of 2014.

"The U.S. fundamental economy actually showed a better growth, and that's because a combination things from consumer having better jobs and benefit from oil, and companies have a lot cash and start into investing capital expenditures," Thomas Lee, Managing Partner at New York-based Fundstrat, told Xinhua. Lee was a former chief equity strategist with JP Morgan.

Wall Street was also sifting through Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen's remarks on monetary policy in her testimonies to Congress. Yellen has reiterated that normalization of interest rates would begin when the Federal Open Market Committee is confident that inflation is on track to hit the U.S. central bank' s inflation target of 2 percent.

"If economic conditions continue to improve, as the committee anticipates, the committee will at some point begin considering as increase in the target range for the federal funds rates on a meeting-by-meeting basis," said Yellen.

While the U.S. central bank is signaling that they also want monetary policy to normalize, their hands will be tied for several quarters, according to Bliss.

"Moreover, even with the Fed pulling back, the other major central banks of the world -- ECB, BOE, BOJ, PBOC, have clearly signaled that they are willing to take an aggressive policy stance to be the great protectors of regional economies," Bliss said.

Trading of U.S. stocks has been choppy since the start of the year, mostly because of concerns over Europe. But the recent development concerning Greek debt soothed investors' sentiment, according to Lee.

The eurozone's finance ministers approved Greece's new bailout plan last Tuesday as the Greek government tabled a "comprehensive" list of proposed reform measures for approval by the Eurogroup teleconference under the Feb. 20 deal for a four-month extension of the four-year bailout to June.

To the relief of investors, German lawmakers approved the extension of the Greek bailout program last Friday as well.

"I think stock market will be less volatility in the coming months," said Lee.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange's Volatility Index, often referred to as Wall Street's fear gauge, fell to 13.04 Monday.

In February, the three major indices rebounded strongly, with the Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq up 5.6 percent, 5.5 percent, and 7. 1 percent, respectively.

Mark Otto, Partner/Designated Market Maker at J. Streicher & Co. , told Xinhua that dips have proven to be buying opportunities as the market reverts back to new highs.

"U.S. markets continue to be extremely resilient," Otto said.

Stocks have a relatively attractive value, because they are cheap against bonds, Lee insisted.

Latest data from Thomson Reuters showed that S&P 500 companies' per-share earnings in the fourth quarter of 2014 are expected to grow 6.7 percent year on year, while revenue growth is forecast to increase 2 percent.

"Of course, much could happen in the world which could change my thinking , but as long central bankers are willing participants, as long as companies keep making money and hiring workers, and as long as the world's geo-political 'hot spots' are kept calm, then my belief is that we will see gains in the U.S. market again this year," said Bliss. Endite