News analysis: Thai ex-leader Yingluck Shinawatra forced to stay put in face of jail-inflicting lawsuit

Former Thai leader Yingluck Shinawatra is very unlikely to be allowed by authorities to depart the country anytime in the near future for fear that she may have intended to escape a criminal lawsuit which could possibly land her a 10-year jail term.

The former lady leader was said to have quietly requested the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), the ruling military junta who seized power in last May's coup, to grant her a permission to leave for a holiday in Hong Kong while her current successor Prayut Chan-o-cha did not either confirm or deny such news reports.

The NCPO, headed by Gen Prayut, had denied Yingluck's request to leave the country on Sunday, citing the lawsuit which is yet to be filed to the Supreme Court later this month, according to political observers.

Yingluck has been accused by the Office of Attorney General of having neglected her duty as head of government and failed to combat corruption in a rice subsidy program implemented by the previous government over the past few years.

The Office of Attorney General is bound to submit the case against Yingluck to Supreme Court judges in charge of criminal lawsuits against politicians within the next few weeks.

"Documents pertaining to the case are being compiled and will be attached to the charges which we already have prepared. We still have time until February 21 to file the case in court," said Wanchai Ruchanawong, the spokesman of the prosecuting agency.

Noravit Lalaeng, a lawyer for the former premier, contended that she should be free to leave the country for any reasons as long as the case has not as yet been filed in court.

Given the intensity of the duty-negligence charges involving an estimated 20-billion-U.S. dollar losses of the taxpayers' money owing to the alleged corruption over the controversial rice program, Yingluck might possibly be sentenced to a maximum of 10 years in prison.

Very few people believe that Yingluck, if ever found guilty as charged, will ever afford to see herself thrown in jail, said the political observers.

She was earlier impeached by the National Legislative Assembly over the alleged fiasco in her handling of the rice program for which she is being politically banned for a five-year time.

Even worse, the non-elected legislative body might possibly pass a law to lengthen her impeachment penalty to a lifetime ban from politics.

Though Yingluck may have planned to see her brother, former Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra, in Hong Kong, she should not be barred by the ruling military from so doing, said former foreign minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul, a protege of Thaksin's.

"It is not legally wrong for her to see her own brother abroad. That will not cause any trouble to the country at all," commented Surapong.

He said Yingluck will not evade the imminent court proceedings as currently feared by her political opponents, including those in Gen Prayut's government.

Nevertheless, according to legal experts, Yingluck needs to be arraigned to appear in court on the date of the opening trial to acknowledge the case which is holding her responsible for duty- negligence charges.

The case cannot be proceeded in court only if the defendant does not show up for any reasons. The Supreme Court is expected to handle the case and deliver a ruling within a period between nine months and one year from now.

Even if Yingluck eventually appears in court on the first day of her trial, that does not mean to say she will definitely be there until the judgment day, they commented.

Thaksin, who had been engaged in a legal battle involving a Bangkok land grab scandal several years earlier, finally decided to evade court proceedings and to have become a globetrotter in exile since. In his absentia, the Supreme Court ruled him guilty of power-abusing charges and sentenced him to a two-year jail term.

Both of the former Thai leaders have encountered similar fates. First, they were overthrown in military coups, following months of violent turmoils in Bangkok streets. Secondly, they were impeached of wrongdoing charges and politically banned. And finally, they were bound for court verdicts.

If Yingluck stays put and faces a final verdict, a jail sentence for her might probably be suspended by court. But if she escapes, she might be spared no mercy, according to a legal expert. Endi