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News Analysis: Arab world could become more involved in fight against IS

Xinhua, February 9, 2015 Adjust font size:

Islamic State's (IS's) brutal tactics may have backfired as a chorus of Arab nations has condemned it after it burned alive a captured Jordanian pilot, and this may be a boon to the world in fight against the radical group.

IS has alarmed the international society by swiftly overtaking vast swaths of territory in Syria and northern Iraq and imposing a draconian set of laws on the region. The group has become synonymous with brutality, beheading international journalists and posting videos of the killings on social media.

But IS extremists may have overplayed their hands last week after posting online a video featuring the grisly execution of a Jordanian military pilot by burning him alive.

The video sent shockwaves through the Middle East, with Jordan taking immediate revenge by intensifying airstrikes against multiple IS targets this week.

The barbaric death of the Jordanian pilot has evoked condemnation throughout the region, including a resounding denunciation from the Sheikh of the revered al-Azhar Mosque in Cairo, Egypt, which holds much weight in the Muslim world.

"As a result of the outpouring of similar denunciations from other leading Sunni religious authorities, there is more sympathy for Jordan -- and for action against IS -- than was the case prior to Feb. 3," Wayne White, former deputy director of U.S. State Department's Middle East Intelligence Office, told Xinhua, referring to the horrid video' s release date.

Indeed, IS miscalculated, betting the pilot's grisly death would sharply heighten internal Jordanian opposition to its involvement in the campaign against IS, White said. While that occurred when the pilot was being held hostage, it has now, at least temporarily, done the opposite, he added.

Ben Connable, a senior international policy analyst at the RAND Corporation, echoed those thoughts, telling Xinhua that IS squandered any opportunity it had to undermine Jordanian support for the coalition campaign.

It seems highly likely that Jordan will increase its support to the coalition air campaign against IS, and the country will probably also be ready to support future coalition activities in which it might play a strong yet supporting role, said Connable, also a retired U.S. Marine Corps intelligence officer.

The question now is whether Jordan will continue to hit IS hard, and whether other Arab allies will significantly ramp up the fight against the Islamist terrorists in a long-term effort to destroy the extremists.

While it is too early to gauge how the killing will affect long-term Jordanian sentiment towards the coalition, it seems highly likely that support for anti-IS action will rise sharply in the short term, Connable said.

Still, it remains unknown whether the Royal Jordanian Army will provide what experts say are much-needed boots on the ground to defeat IS.

Jordan boasts one of the Arab world's most proficient military forces. While it is relatively small, it has elite units in reserve, although much of it already is committed to screening Jordan's long border adjacent to IS holdings, White said.

If not taken by surprise, Jordanian units could inflict punishing damage on comparable -- even somewhat larger -- IS combatant formations, White noted. Endi