News Analysis: Italy's Renzi emerges from tough period stronger than ever

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi lost the backing of two key supporters in less than a month, but experts say he has nonetheless emerged stronger and is more prepared than ever to aggressively pursue his reform agenda.

Last month, 89-year-old Giorgio Napolitano stepped down as Italian president, citing his advanced age. Napolitano had been a faithful supporter of most of Renzi's reform plan.

This week, controversial ally Silvio Berlusconi, the former prime minister best known for his legal problems, announced he was abandoning the pact that allied him with Renzi's supporters after he was mostly left out of the consultation process to select Napolitano's successor.

At the same time, Renzi's economic reforms have failed to gain much traction, with predictions of economic growth downgraded twice in recent weeks, while the country's debt keeps piling up despite warnings from European Union economists.

Yet despite those developments, Renzi's deft navigation through the political waters around recent changes have left the 40-year-old leader once criticized for a lack of experience in a stronger position than ever.

"Renzi is from Florence and so was Niccolo Machiavelli," said Pietro Paganini, from the Competere think tank, referring to the Renaissance writer and philosopher known for brutality, ambition and the phrase "The end justifies the means."

"Renzi played a tough political game and he won; he learned well from his fellow Florentine," Paganini continued.

Former judge and government minister Sergio Mattarella was selected as Napoliatno's replacement last weekend, and though it's too early to know how Mattarella will react regarding the reform agenda, experts say Renzi's strong position in parliament is likely to make that less important.

Berlusconi's departure, meanwhile, has rid the prime minister of a problematic partner whose support fostered doubt within Renzi's own political party.

Now with the nearly full support of his party, plus the backing of a handful of lawmakers from Berlusconi's camp and other minority parties, Renzi appears to have a strong enough parliamentary base to push through his reforms.

"Without Berlusconi's supporters Renzi probably can't reach the two-thirds majority needed for a constitutional reform to enter into law without a national referendum," Mattia Guidi, a political scientist with LUISS University in Rome, told Xinhua. "But he wants a referendum to show that these reforms have popular support. Even if he had a two-thirds majority he would have probably instructed some supporters to withhold their backing so he would have to go to a national vote."

The next reform on Renzi's calendar is a big tax initiative scheduled for Feb. 20. But the headline-grabbing reforms in the pipeline are an electoral reform that will change the way parliamentary majorities are determined in order to make government coalitions more stable, and a political reform that aims to dramatically downsize the size, power, and expense of Italy's Senate, the upper house of parliament.

Paganini said Renzi could use his strong position to either move to pass his reforms even quicker or he could push for new elections on the gamble that he would further strengthen his position with a new parliament. Most analysts predict Renzi will make the first option, but Paganini said he may do both.

"Keep in mind that the electoral and political reforms really help Renzi's position more than they help the country," Paganini said.

"He could pass the reforms, wait for the necessary time for them to go into force, and then call new elections late in the fall. He's very far-sighted and if things go his way that could leave him with a still-stronger position for backing more dramatic reforms." Endi