News Analysis: Yemen at crossroads as Houthi group leads transition period

The Shiite Houthi group announced on Friday a "constitutional declaration," finally taking over control of the country after almost six months of power struggle.

The group said a national presidential council comprised of five members will be formed to replace the presidency to run the country in the next transition period of two years.

Moreover, it said the Supreme Revolutionary Commiite led by the group will establish a transition national council comprised of 551 members to replace the parliament which is currently under control of former President Ali Abdullah Saleh.

The Houthi group said it was necessary to end the power vacuum after the resignations of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the cabinet.

Hadi and the cabinet submitted resignation in mid-January after Houthi militias seized the presidential compound and presidency protection forces including elite brigades. The parliament is due to hold a session to vote on Hadi's resignation, which, however, was delayed indefinitely.

The UN-backed talks to salvage the transition in recent weeks failed to end the crisis either through convincing Hadi and government to reconsider their resignations or reaching a consensual deal agreed by all factions.

Observers said that Yemen is likely to experience civil conflicts, fragmentation and possible economic collapse after the Houthi group takes the unilateral move.

Nabil Albukiri, a researcher specialised in militant group issues and head of the Arab center for political studies and development, said the Houthi's decision may deepen the chaos in the country as it lacks of large popularity in a country where the majority are Sunnis.

RISKY DECISION

Observers said the declaration was risky since it was unilateral, did not resolve the power vacuum directly and marked the complete failure of the UN-backed transition which has been based on consensus and power-sharing.

Fuad Alsalahi, a political sociology professor at Sanaa University, said Houthis have placed Yemen in a dilemma.

"Yemen is a civilised, democratic country and Houthis should understand there is no room to deny such a fact or insist on ruling by force and sectarian methods," he said.

"The Houthi group lacks public legitimacy, social popularity, skilled politicians and experiences in managing state affairs," he added.

Meanwhile, Najeeb Ghalab, a politics professor at Sanaa University, said Yemen will also face political and economic isolation especially from the Gulf Cooperation Council which had been sponsoring the transition in Yemen since 2011.

"Yemen has experienced a failed transition but there are still suitable options to rectify the situation; the Houthi group must not be the solution," he said.

LACK OF CONSENSUS

The declaration dissolved the parliament and replaced it with a 551-member national council which will be responsible for naming a five-member presidential council to fill in the current power vacuum.

The presidential council in turn will pick a premier and assign the premier to form a transitional government.

However, the declaration did not indicate how to establish the legitimacy of the two councils. The Houthi group said a Supreme Revolutionary Committee led by the group's leader will take the responsibility to set up the national council, which will be difficult for other political factions to accept in addressing the power vacuum, observers said.

If the Houthis can't solve the power vacuum at the moment, when then or rather why did they rush in such a way, Alsalahi said.

"The declaration will lead to complicated scenarios mainly in the south where people have been calling for separation," Alsalahi added.

Negotiators who attended consultations in the past few days said the presidential council would be headed by Ali Nasser Mohammed, a former president of South Yemen before the 1990 merger with North Yemen.

However, reactions have already started to emerge from political parties in the southern cities which are not under control of the Houthi group.

Demonstrations are underway and tensions may escalated in the following days to reject the Houthi leadership, which raises fears of worsening security in the country where hosts the most dangerous branch of the al-Qaida network. Endit