News Analysis: Impeached former Thai leader faces possible custodial sentence

Former Thai prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra is risking a potential jail sentence in addition to Friday's impeachment, which has denied her a political role for five years with immediate effect.

Yingluck, who was impeached by non-elected legislators in parliament, will likely be found guilty of duty-negligence charges involving alleged corruption connected to a rice subsidy program implemented by her previous government.

She could be arraigned and have to stand trial in the Supreme Court and face a lawsuit lodged against her by the Office of Attorney General in a few months, according to legal experts.

Barely an hour before 190 members of the National Legislative Assembly, all of whom were handpicked by Thai Premier Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, cast their vote to impeach Yingluck on corruption charges over the controversial rice scheme, the Office of Attorney General said it would file the criminal lawsuit against her in the same case.

Following the charges levied by the National Anti-Corruption Commission that Yingluck had failed to stop alleged corruption regarding the rice program, which had reportedly incurred some 20 billion U.S. dollars in losses to taxpayer's money, the case will be submitted to the Supreme Court.

It will take the Supreme Court's judges in charge of dealing with lawsuits against politicians, a nine-to-12-month period to deliver a ruling on Yingluck's case. And, if found guilty as charged, she will likely be sentenced to a maximum of 10 years in jail, said the legal experts.

But Yingluck might opt to evade the court proceedings even though she has vowed to fight for justice in future legal battles.

"Given her predicament following the outcome of the court's verdict, Yingluck might possibly be compelled to escape rather than finally face the ruling and get herself thrown in jail," said a former legislator of the once-ruling Pheu Thai Party.

Compared to the possibility of being sentenced to 10-years in jail, the impeachment, which is keeping her banned from politics for five years, is a relatively mild penalty, he said.

Though Yingluck strongly maintained that she had done nothing wrong with the rice scheme and vowed to fight for justice and democratic rule, which she said "has already died" in Thailand, the former leader might eventually flout the court's future verdict.

"Given the fact that previous rulings by the Supreme Court had never come off in favor of the Shinawatra family, the future verdict might mercilessly deliver her a jail sentence. Few people might think she will ever accept it," said the ex-lawmaker.

Under a martial rule enforced nationwide, Yingluck needs permission for any plan to leave the country from the National Council for Peace and Order, the official name of the military junta which seized power in May.

Requests for going abroad on a temporary basis will likely be denied by the ruling junta, headed by Gen Prayut, according to political observers.

This is primarily due to the fact that she will become a defendant in the case involving the rice program with which a member of the anti-graft agency, namely Wicha Mahakhun, called " the most obvious corruption at policy level ever found in Thailand. "

Yingluck's fate will likely be similar to that of her own brother, former Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra, who managed to leave the country before the Supreme Court delivered him a verdict for his involvement in a Bangkok land grab scandal in 2008.

In his absentia, Thaksin was ruled guilty of power-abuse charges and sentenced to a two-year jail term. However, he has remained in exile since.

Yingluck commented that she had been obviously denied justice and "politically ruined by political enemies," whom she did not identify by name, and that the rice farmers had been merely used as "tools" for such means.

"I will continue to fight until justice has been provided and democratic rule returned," said Yingluck on her Facebook account, shortly after she had been denied by military officers a press conference in response to her impeachment.

Given such relentless legal penalties facing the former premier, the much-heralded national reconciliatory bids, earlier pledged by Gen Prayut's interim government, will only become empty promises, commented Asadang Panikabut, former dean of Ramkhamhaeng University's Political Science Faculty.

The current Thai leader had repeatedly made comments which implied that his predecessor would not be spared any legal penalty, though he might have "sympathy" for her hardships, Asadang said. Endi