Roundup: S. Korea's central bank cuts 2015 growth outlook
Xinhua, January 15, 2015 Adjust font size:
South Korea's central bank on Thursday revised down its 2015 growth outlook to 3.4 percent from an earlier forecast of 3.9 percent.
"The downward revision reflects unprecedented factors," Bank of Korea (BOK) governor Lee Ju-yeol told reporters after the January monetary policy meeting.
The bank kept the benchmark interest rate on hold at a record low of 2 percent for three straight months.
Lee said fiscal expenditure fell on lack of tax revenue and mobile devices sales reduced on tighter regulations, noting that those resulted in slower growth in the fourth quarter of last year.
The BOK outlook was much lower than the government's growth forecast of 3.8 percent.
The central bank continued to lower its 2015 growth outlook from 4.2 percent in April 2014 to 4 percent in July and 3.9 percent in October.
The fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2014 was originally expected to reach 1 percent on a quarterly basis, but it was revised down to 0.4 percent due to the unprecedented factors, the governor said.
Lee, however, noted that the quarterly GDP growth is forecast to be around 1 percent this year, higher than a 0.7 percent expansion in 2014. He said such growth trend meets the economy's potential, saying the policy rate's current level is enough to bolster the economy.
The BOK expected the South Korean economy to grow 3.7 percent in 2016 from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the bank downgraded its 2015 outlook for consumer price inflation to 1.9 percent from 2.4 percent estimated three months earlier. It is also lower than the government's estimate of 2 percent.
The BOK kept a downward revision of its 2015 outlook for headline inflation from 2.8 percent in April 2014 to 2.7 percent in July and 2.4 percent in October.
The headline inflation was expected to rise to 2.6 percent in 2016.
The governor said the downward revision for consumer prices came as global crude oil prices tumbled in the past months, noting that the bank had difficulties in predicting the path of oil prices.
The BOK forecast that the country's oil import prices would average 67 U.S. dollars per barrel this year, but it said there remained huge uncertainties over the future price path.
Private consumption was expected to grow 2.6 percent in 2015 before rising 2.9 percent in 2016. The 2015 figure was revised down from a 3.5 percent expansion estimated three months earlier.
Outlooks for facility investment growth in 2015 and 2016 were set at 6 percent and 5.7 percent each, and those for construction investment in 2015 and 2016 stood at 3.3 percent and 2.3 percent respectively.
Exports of goods are expected to increase 3.4 percent in 2015 and 3.9 percent in 2016 respectively, with those for imports forecast to expand 3.4 percent and 4.2 percent each.
The BOK revised up its 2015 outlook for current account surplus to 94 billion U.S. dollars from an earlier forecast of 70 billion dollars on the back of the expected fall in import costs for oil. The 2016 outlook for current account surplus was set at 85 billion dollars.
The economy was expected to add 420,000 jobs in 2015 after creating 533,000 jobs in 2014. Outlook for 2016 job creation was set at 380,000.
Outlooks for jobless rate in 2015 and 2016 were 3.4 percent and 3.3 percent each. The 2014 unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in 2014. Endi