Developing countries which invest in better education,
healthcare, and job training for their record numbers of young
people between the ages of 12 and 24, could produce surging
economic growth and sharply reduced poverty, according to a new
World Bank report launched at the Bank's Annual Meetings in
Singapore.
With 1.3 billion young people now living in the
developing world—the largest-ever youth group in history—the report
says there has never been a better time to invest in youth because
they are healthier and better educated than previous generations,
and they will join the workforce with fewer dependents because of
changing demographics. However, failure to seize this opportunity
to train them more effectively for the workplace, and to be active
citizens, could lead to widespread disillusionment and social
tensions.
"Such large numbers of young people living in
developing countries present great opportunities, but also risks,"
says François Bourguignon, the World Bank's Chief Economist and
Senior Vice President for Development Economics. "The opportunities
are great, as many countries will have a larger, more skilled labor
force and fewer dependents. But these young people must be
well-prepared in order to create and find good jobs."
The report says that young people make up nearly half
of the ranks of the world's unemployed, and, for example, that the
Middle East and North Africa region alone must create 100 million
jobs by 2020 in order to stabilize its employment situation.
Moreover, surveys of young people in East Asia and Eastern Europe
and Central Asia—carried out as research for the report—indicate
that access to jobs, along with physical security, is their biggest
concern.
Far too many young people—some 130 million 15-24 year
olds—cannot read or write. Secondary education and skill
acquisition make sense only if primary schooling has been
successful. This is still far from being the case and efforts have
to be reinforced in this area. In addition, more than 20 percent of
firms in countries such as Algeria, Bangladesh, Brazil, China,
Estonia, and Zambia, rate poor education and work skills among
their workforce as 'a major or severe obstacle to their
operations.' Overcoming this handicap starts with more and better
investments in youth.
"Most developing countries have a short window of
opportunity to get this right before their record numbers of youth
become middle-aged, and they lose their demographic dividend. This
isn't just enlightened social policy. This may be one of the
profound decisions a developing country will ever make to banish
poverty and galvanize its economy," says Manny Jimenez, lead author
of the report, and Director of Human Development in the World
Bank's East Asia and the Pacific Department.
One study attributes more than 40 percent of the
higher growth in East Asia over Latin America in 1965-1990 to
progressive policies on macro-economics, trade, education,
healthcare, and vocational training, and the faster growth of its
working-age population. Countries that miss this demographic window
will find themselves lagging increasingly further behind in the
global economy.
The report says that most policymakers know that their
young people will greatly influence their national social and
economic fortunes, but nonetheless face acute dilemmas in how to
invest more effectively in their youth. The World Development
Report identifies three strategic policies that may enhance
investment in young people: (1) Expanding opportunities, (2)
improving capabilities, and (3) offering second chances for young
people who have fallen behind due to difficult circumstances or
poor choices. These address five fundamental transitions facing
young people and affecting their whole economic, social and family
life, namely getting an education, finding work, staying healthy,
forming families, and exercising citizenship.
• Opportunities—With broadened
opportunities for better education and healthcare, young people can
acquire the life skills to navigate adolescence and young adulthood
safely, while improved vocational training will help them compete
in the workforce. Youth political participation and involvement in
social organizations is also essential for fostering young people’s
civic life in their own communities and also vital for good
governance.
Without opportunities for productive civic engagement,
young people’s frustrations may boil over into economic and social
tensions, creating long-simmering disputes. For example, the
ongoing ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka between Sinhalese and Tamils
was initially caused by the frustration of Tamil students shut out
of university places and denied other avenues for civic
involvement.
• Capabilities— Providing information to
young people and developing their decision-making skills,
especially to stay healthy and appreciate continued learning, is
important. Armed with the right information and incentives, these
young people can make good decisions.
Analysis of India's Better Life Options program, which
provides information on reproductive and health services and
vocational training to young females aged 12-20 in urban slums and
rural areas, shows that youth in the program were significantly
more involved in key life decisions than those who were
not.
• Second chances—Countries need targeted
programs for young people who have fallen behind due to difficult
circumstances or poor choices. These can be dropping out of school,
drug addiction, criminal behavior, or prolonged unemployment.
Second chances help young people rebuild their future, which has a
long-term beneficial effect on society as a whole. Rehabilitation
is costly, but the payoffs are highest for young people who still
have a lifetime of potential productivity ahead of them.
The report says that 300,000 young people under the
age of 18 have recently been involved in armed conflict, and
another 500,000 have been recruited into military or paramilitary
forces. Experience with demobilization and rehabilitation programs
shows that young combatants can reconstruct their lives with job
training and also medical and psychological support.
While many of these issues may not be solved easily,
developing countries and their young people alike can take heart
from dozens of examples where youth, supported by enlightened
policies and public institutions, have not only coped but
flourished.
"Young people today have more education, experience
greater political openness, and have increased contact with the
outside world through television, the internet, and migration than
any of their predecessors, and this can ease their transition into
being the law-abiding, engaged citizens of tomorrow," says Mamta
Murthi, co-author of the World Development Report 2007, and a Lead
Economist in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia
Department.
Murthi says that channeling their knowledge and
natural creativity can stimulate economic growth, and produce
long-lasting beneficial effects which will have repercussions far
beyond their generation. Put simply, they will influence the
outcomes of the global fight against poverty over the next 40-50
years.
(China Development Gateway September 18,
2006)
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