Northeast China's Jilin Province, one of the country's major grain production centers, is poised to see a bumper harvest this year despite low temperatures and devastating floods and as concerns about food security increase on the eve of World Food Day on Oct. 16.

Grain production is expected to hit a record 29.5 million tonnes in Jilin this year, surpassing the previous high of 28.4 million tonnes in 2008, said Wang Shouchen, vice governor of the province.

Meanwhile, Heilongjiang Province, the country's largest grain production center in northeast China, may also produce a record output this year, surpassing last year's 43.53 million tonnes.

China's annual grain production has grown for six consecutive years, with total output hitting 530.8 million tonnes, up 100.1 million tonnes from 2003, but experts say more frequent natural disasters, decreasing arable land, rapid urbanization and industrialization are posing great challenges to the country's food security.

Zheng Fengtian, a professor of agriculture and rural development works with the Beijing-based Renmin University of China, told Xinhua one of greatest future challenges for China's food security will be the Chinese farmer's unwillingness to produce grains because of low yields. Instead, most farmers will prefer being migrant workers in big cities. < Their interest in growing grains might becomes further dampened as prices of agricultural equipment and other materials continue rising. In contrast, migrant workers are receiving increasingly higher pay in the cities, Zheng said.

Government figures show about 47 percent of Chinese people, or 622 million people, now live in cities and towns; almost 200 million are immigrants, or people from other parts of the country.

At a forum on the urban-rural divide last month, Zuo Xuejin, Executive Vice President of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said that another 400 million people from rural China are likely to migrate to cities in the next 20 years, which means there will be fewer farmers in the fields.

With China's rapid industrialization and urbanization, a decline in available farming land is inevitable, and poses a large threat for China's food security, Zheng Fengtian said.

A survey by the Ministry of Land and Resources shows that farm lands have shrunk by 123 million mu (8.2 million hectares) between 1997 and 2009.

The Chinese government announced in 2003 that it would put in place a strict system to protect arable land, and guaranteed that a minimum 1.8-billion mu of arable land would be available. But official figures reveal arable land totaled only 1.635 billion mu last year, down by 191 million mu from 2008.

Zheng Fengtian said to ensure food security, the government should show more determination in protecting farm land. But more importantly, it should also increase profit yields for grain growers, and by facilitating technological advances, also help to raise the grain yield per unit of arable land.

World Food Day, initiated in 1981 by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), is celebrated every year on Oct. 16. The theme this year is United against Hunger.

In part due to soaring food prices and the financial crisis in 2009, one billion people around the world are suffering from hunger, which FAO Director-General Jacques Diouf said was a "tragic achievement in these modern days," according to a statement on the FAO website.

While some people are starving, the quantity of food that gets wasted stands in stark contrast. Zheng Tianfeng estimated that about 85 million tonnes of grain were wasted in China during consumption and storage. Also, at least 10 percent of food is wasted daily at family dinner tables.

A survey by food authorities in 2006 also showed 8-10 percent of the grain was lost in storage, which means that Chinese farmers can lose up to 20 million tonnes of grain each year.

In order to help farmers better store their produce, some "grain banks" had been set up in the past. Farmers could deposit their produce in the "banks" and withdraw them when needed.

Wu Mancang, a 34-year-old farmer from Taicang city in eastern Jiangsu province, said he used to store grain at his home, but the grain would become spoiled. With the grain "banks", that problem has been resolved. A total of 8 such "banks" with 23 service centers are currently operational in Taicang, covering 60 percent of the farmers in the region.

"Global warming, and more frequent natural disasters, will also be a challenge for food security," Zheng said, as summer grain output fell 0.3 percent after a prolonged drought in southwestern China in the first half of the year.

China's National Development and Reform Commission, the nation' s top economic regulator, said Tuesday it would increase the state minimum purchase price of wheat in major wheat-growing areas in 2011.

The minimum purchase price for white wheat will increase by 5 yuan (US$0.73) from the 2010 level to 95 yuan per 50 kilograms, while the price for red wheat will increase by 7 yuan to 93 yuan. The move aims to protect farmer incomes and promote grain production.

(Xinhua News Agency October 16, 2010)