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Growth in Asia to Fall to 6.2% in 2008: IMF

Growth in Asia as a whole is projected to decline from 7.4 percent in 2007 to 6.2 percent this year, but will rise modestly next year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Friday.

"This markdown reflects lower export growth as the drop in external demand from the United States and Europe affects the region foremost through the trade channel, including the dampening effects on demand of sustained high world oil prices," the IMF said in a report titled Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific.

In terms of demand components, real export growth in emerging Asia is projected to decline by 4 percentage points in 2008, led by China, the report said.

Domestic demand is seen as holding up reasonably well in most emerging Asian economies, supported by strong momentum, steady consumer and business confidence, and healthy household and bank balance sheets, it added.

It also said investment will be more affected than consumption, owing to a relatively sharp decline in India, although parts of the region will see a modest increase.

Consumption growth should be moderate across most of the region, falling by 0.5 percentage point overall. Domestic demand should ease in industrial Asia as well.

"Broadly speaking, Asia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth should rebound in line with the gradual global recovery in 2009," the report projected.

Reflecting these developments, Asia's aggregate current account surplus is seen to decline from 5.2 percent of GDP in 2007 to about 4 percent of GDP in 2008 and 2009, it said.

(Xinhua News Agency April 12, 2008)


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