A pandemic triggered by swine flu is expected to negatively impact the already fragile global economy. Analysts say the widespread outbreak could further deepen the recession worldwide. And only a few drug makers are poised to receive any benefits.

The world economy is struggling to recover from the financial crisis. But it is now facing a formidable new threat -- swine flu. A World Bank study in 2008 estimated that a severe pandemic such as the 1918 to 1919 Spanish flu could cost up to 3 trillion yuan in lost output. That's nearly 5 percent of the global GDP.

Travel and transportation-related industries are expected to be hardest hit. Analysts say if the new flu strain continues to spread, people will travel less due to concerns over infection. This will in turn greatly affect tourism and transportation industries around the globe.

The swine flu is also sending a chill through the farm sector, resulting in sinking pork prices. Authorities have been trying to reassure consumers that it's safe to eat pork. But analysts say shoppers might lose their appetite for pork until the situation becomes clearer. In the United States, hog prices have slumped to record lows over the past two months.

Swine flu worries have also pushed down crude oil prices. Oil prices dipped to around US$50 a barrel on Monday on fears that the swine flu outbreak could hurt the global economy. Analysts say talk of a pandemic will continue to weigh on prices.

But analysts also say the threat of a pandemic will provide a windfall for drug makers, due to sharply increasing demand in drugs and vaccines. But they remain concerned that the swine flu outbreak may reverse recent progress made in easing the global economic downturn.

(CCTV April 28, 2009)