Has Israel Achieved Its Goals in Gaza? It Depends
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Israel announced a unilateral ceasefire in the Gaza Strip on Saturday after a deadly 22-day offensive that occurred amidst mediation and mounting global pressure to end the violence.
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert claimed the offensive achieved all of its goals. Analysts say if the goal was to teach Hamas a lesson, then the objective was accomplished. But, they said, if the goal was the eradication of Hamas, then Israel was not successful.
"If it is out to educate Hamas, Israel may have achieved its aims," New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman said recently.
Hamas institutions were badly damaged during the offensive and several senior Hamas officials, including Interior Minister Said Siam and Nizar Rayan, a top military commander, were killed. Hundreds of Hamas fighters also died in Israeli air raids.
But Israeli officials said in briefings to the cabinet on Sunday that Hamas militants might well keep shooting rockets just to prove that the group remains strong.
General estimates put the entire force of Hamas well into the thousands.
"Israel knew it could not destroy every rocket or kill every Hamas militant," said Ethan Bronner, Jerusalem bureau chief of The New York Times.
"What is clear is that, despite vague Israeli hopes that Hamas could be completely removed, that has not happened," Bronner wrote in a recent article. "Much of the group's manpower remains, mostly because it made a point of fighting at a distance -- or not at all-- whenever possible despite the fury of the Israeli advance and bombardment."
On the other hand, Hamas, which has connected with grassroots support in Gaza, remains defiant.
Ismail Haniya, head of the Islamic movement's government in the Gaza Strip, claimed a "great victory" after Israel announced its ceasefire.
"God has granted us a great victory, not for one faction, or party, or area, but for our entire people," Haniya said in a televised address, "We have stopped the aggression and the enemy has failed to achieve any of its goals."
Analysts say Israel's second goal -- the ending of weapons smuggling into Gaza -- will require hard diplomacy and sustained international cooperation in order to be accomplished.
Reports say Israel's decision to call a unilateral ceasefire in its war on Hamas came about after it won pledges from Washington and Cairo to help prevent arms smuggling into the Gaza Strip -- a task in which Europe has also pledged to help.
But Egypt denied the consensus. Egyptian Foreign Minister AhmedAbul Gheit said Cairo was "not bound" by a U.S.-Israeli agreement to stop arms smuggling to Hamas-ruled Gaza.
Mohammad Subeih, the Arab League (AL) assistant secretary-general for Palestinian affairs, said Sunday that the Israelis were looking for a way out of the conflict as the general election approached.
Subeih said Israel did not achieve a military victory, noting that the offensive did not weaken Palestinian resistance in Gaza.
Some suggested that a third goal of the offensive was an effort by Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni to boost support for her Kadima party ahead of the Feb. 10 election.
The latest polls indicated, however, that Israel's political landscape did not make dramatic changes following the Gaza offensive.
Surveys on Sunday showed that former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party is still expected to take a leading 31 seats in parliament, while Livni's ruling centrist Kadima party was forecast to capture between 23 and 26. Defense Minister Ehud Barak's Labor party was expected to win about 15 of the 120 seats.
The Israeli offensive, which began December 27, killed more than 1,240 Palestinians and wounded more than 5,300 others. Thirteen Israelis -- four killed by rockets fired from Gaza and nine soldiers killed in the ground battle -- died in the violence.
Countries around the world had called for an immediate end to the military attack and urged all parties concerned to return to the negotiation table to seek a lasting and just settlement to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
(Xinhua News Agency January 20, 2009)