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British Expert: World Economy Faces 'Huge Uncertainties'

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The global economy still faces "huge uncertainties" in the short term and trade protectionism is a "big mistake," Dougie Adams, an expert from British think tank Oxford Economics told Xinhua Wednesday.

The world economy was slowly regaining strength but still faced risks of a downward trend, said Adams, who is director of Oxford Economics' consulting business.

So far, low interest rates and favorable fiscal policies had helped cure the economy but also brought risks, including huge budget deficits, he said.

"Given the experience of the past 80 years, the decision to carry out trade barriers or protectionism is a big mistake and dampens in the end the global economic recovery, but it now still remains alive due to its political benefit," Adams said.

"The world economy is now in the adjustment process, but it is clear that, in the long run, the global economy has a bright future and is backed by strong impetus. China is a fast-growing economy in the world and will keep the momentum for a longer term. So China is one of the leading powers to boost the economic recovery, if not the only one," he added.

"The aviation industry is an important part of the global economy. As of 2007, 35 percent of the trade volume in manufactured goods (US$3.5 trillion) is transported by air, and air freight has increased 65 percent in 10 years," Adams quoted from a report: Aviation: The real World Wide Web.

He said international trade had shrunk faster in the past year than in the Great Depression due to the financial crisis, and the aviation industry had also suffered a heavy loss.

Adams said, when the economy was going up with the rebound of investment and global trade, the aviation industry stood ready to play a "key role" in connecting business persons, although the industry itself was not a driving force.

"Over 5.5 million workers are employed directly in the industry worldwide, with a turnover of more than US$1 trillion. By 2026, air transport will directly employ some 8.5 million people and contribute US$1 trillion to the world GDP," said the report.

(Xinhua News Agency September 24, 2009)

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