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World Economic Structure Changing with Financial Crisis

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The coming Group of 20 Summit, the second within six months, is to many heralding a potential fundamental change in the world economic setup.

It will be a change that not only sees developing and under-developed countries have more say in global affairs, but also sees Brazil, Russia, India and China combine to serve as a new impetus for world's economic recovery.

Before the scheduled Pittsburgh summit, the United States is pushing for a quota reduction of four World Bank and IMF governors held by the developed countries, which have already agreed to handover to developing countries 5 percent of their shares in the IMF.

Like it or not, the developed countries, which have seen a slim recovery, have to envy the performance of the emerging economic entities led by the foursome, or what Goldman Sachs has acronymed as the BRICs, in the midst of dire economic distress.

Put together, Brazil, Russia, India and China are expected to post growth of close to 5 percent this year, whereas the global economy as a whole is to drop by 1 percent, according to the latest Goldman Sachs estimate.

The IMF forecast in its July edition of the World Economic Outlook that the emerging and developing economic entities were expected to post 2009 growth of 1.5 percent on average, whereas the global economy was to contract by 1.4 percent in the same time span.

A recent survey conducted by South Korea's Joong Ang Daily has rated China as the new leader in the post-recession world economy. China outrated the United States 42.1 percent-to-33.3 percent in the newspaper survey of 84 economists and scholars in and out of the country.

He Fan, a researcher at the world economy and politics institute under the Academy of Social Sciences of China, has predicted that the proportion held by the United States in the world economic structure after the recession would not change but those held by Europe and Japan would shrink. Emerging economic entities such as China and India would see their proportions expand.

The past year already has witnessed the BRICs account for 15 percent of the global economic aggregate and the BRIC purchasing power in PPP (purchasing power parity of gross domestic product) value contributed to upwards of half of the world growth in 2008.

Though still in the making, the envisaged change in the world economic setup will begin moving the tip of the global power balance toward the developing countries, without the participation and support of which a number of global issues cannot be dealt with in their proper perspective.

But the progress of change is anticipated to be step by step, if not slow, in that the developed countries are making affordable compromises to safeguard their long-held position behind the wheel of the world economic engine.

If not for the ongoing credit crunch-caused global economic slowdown, the G20 Summit could still remain sidelined in sidelights, especially in the shade of the G8.

So, as at the London summit, the Pittsburgh gathering of heads of state from the 20 countries are expected to hear louder appeals from developing countries to have more say and more rights in deciding and running the world economy.

The BRICs have already jointly pitched their tune on sorting out an alternative foreign exchange reserve to the US dollars-only mechanism.

Thanks to their stronger footholds in the worst recession since World War II, which saw American and European economies dive, the BRIC countries are expected to play more active roles in the coming G20 Summit and other international activities to pave the way for the change.

(Xinhua News Agency September 22, 2009)