Urbanization and poverty relief will pose tough challenges to China in its ongoing efforts to reduce carbon emissions

China must overcome major challenges in order to achieve the target set by the State Council last year to reduce carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 percent from the 2005 level by 2020. Stern steps are clearly mapped out in the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015), which shows China's firm resolve to address climate change.

Economic development and improving people's livelihoods are the top priorities for many developing countries, including China. With a population of 1.3 billion, China's per capita GDP is just over US$3,000. By United Nations' standards, 150 million Chinese live below the poverty line and China shoulders the burden of improving people's livelihoods.

Even though China is currently at a crucial stage in its endeavor to build a xiaokang (well-off) society - an important stage of industrialization and urbanization - the nation will not follow the same path as most developed countries, which made little effort to control emissions during their own industrialization and urbanization.

Economic growth determines the intensity of energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions per GDP. With economic development and improvement in people's living standards, it will take active measures to control greenhouse gas emissions.

China's urbanization level is only 45 percent. It will take 30 years to reach 75 percent given the current growth rate of 1 percent a year. Even more daunting for China, the urban population will increase by 450 million from now to 2040, which is equivalent to 1.5 times the population of the United States.

Rapid urbanization creates increasing demand for urban infrastructure and housing, employment, consumption and energy. Emissions will increase as people's consumption increases.

Given there are 100 square meters of buildings per capita - which covers residential houses and hospitals, schools and other public facilities - even if the life span of a building is 100 years, 1.4 billion sq m of new buildings will be needed every year. Improving people's living standards, maintaining and retrofitting infrastructure, will all put additional pressure on controlling greenhouse gas emissions in the future.

Along with economic and social growth and the improvement in people's living standards, China must also shift from industrialization to modernization.

To achieve its carbon intensity reduction target, the total non-fossil energy consumption will be equivalent to 675 million tons of coal in 2020, an increase of an equivalent of more than 500 million tons of coal compared to 2005.

By 2020, energy consumption per unit of GDP needs to decline by a further 30 percent based on the 20 percent reduction in the 11th Five-Year-Plan period (2006-2010). This will require China to utilize renewable energy, nuclear power and other non-fossil energy sources, and initiate policies and measures to improve energy efficiency.

During the 11th Five-Year Plan, in order to realize the 20 percent energy intensity reduction target, China has eliminated many faulty production facilities and shut down many small thermal power stations, iron and steel plants and cement plants.

However, employment, social justice, poverty alleviation and other factors will also increase the social pressure on energy conservation and emissions reduction. According to statistics, during the first four years of the 11th Five-Year-Plan period, the shutting down of 70 gigawatts of small-scale thermal power capacity affected the employment of about 400,000 people. The government and workers at all levels bore the direct social costs of these closures.

It is indisputable that during the transformation of China's economy and society, the economic and social affects of energy conservation and emission reduction will pose enormous challenges.

However, in the face of these challenges, China has chosen to follow the path of sustainable development and is adopting positive measures to control greenhouse gas emissions.

The efforts undertaken by China are already much greater than many developed countries. For example, from 2006 to the middle of 2009, China eliminated more than 54 gW of small-scale power-generating units with capacity of less than 100 megawatts, about 70 percent of the total installed capacity of the United Kingdom.

During the 11th Five-Year Plan, China's investments in achieving the 20 percent target in energy intensity exceeded 1 trillion yuan. However, an additional investment of 3.4 trillion yuan is still needed to achieve a further 20 percent reduction.

According to HSBC, 34 percent of China's total government investment during the international financial crisis has been invested in environment-related measures.

A decline in the carbon dioxide intensity per unit of GDP reflects an improvement in economic benefits created by a unit of carbon dioxide emissions in a country. It also reflects a country's efforts to battle climate change within the framework of sustainable development.

The great efforts made by China to reduce the carbon dioxide intensity per unit of GDP during the process of industrialization have already exceeded efforts by many developed countries when they were in the same development stage.

This demonstrates that China is committed to being responsible and determined when it comes to climate change.

The author is director of Beijing Energy Efficiency Center.

(China Daily December 1, 2010)