Who Will 'Feed' the US?
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The United States, the world's most developed country, is scrambling to answer the question "Who will 'feed' the US?" years after it had asked the most populous developing country a similar question: "Who will feed China?"
Is it sensational to ask the richest country the same question that China faced more than 10 years ago? The reply is "No." This time, it is not about "grain supply", but "capital supply" and "supply of order."
An unprecedented financial crisis that originated in the US is shattering the world, without exception to any region. In response, the US has announced massive rescue plans to revive the economy, and is ready to roll out more such plans, yet leaving a big question mark as to how it will get enough money to finance those plans.
The US Congress sanctioned a US$787 billion stimulus plan submitted by the Obama administration last month, which media reports said is only a small fraction of the overall plan.
The US-based San Francisco Business Times reported on November 26 that the US government and the Federal Reserve is harboring a huge US$8.5 trillion rescue plan, or about 60 percent of the country's GDP.
US President Barack Obama is expecting a record US$1.75 trillion in federal fiscal deficit this year. The fiscal figure reached a high of US$459 billion last year.
This year's deficit would account for 12.3 percent of the GDP, the highest since the World War II and far exceeding the recognized 3-percent alarm level.
In addition, Obama also foresaw an average US$1 trillion in deficits each year for 2010 and 2011.
Many US experts said Obama's estimate was too optimistic, and the actual deficit would be even bigger, as the president excluded the country's liabilities in his projection.
Where does the money come from?
Who will be able to provide the financial support for the enormous fiscal deficit of the US government?
The US Treasury Department estimated the US government would issue up to US$2.56 trillion of treasury bonds this year, and at least US$1.14 trillion more next year.
By the end of last year, outstanding treasury bonds stood at US$10.7 trillion. About 29 percent, or US$2.862 trillion, is held by foreign governments or investors. That means the country's reliance on overseas investors holding treasury bonds has been raised by 10 percentage points from eight years ago.
"The world simply cannot buy any more new issuance of US treasury bonds," said Yu Zuyao, an honorary economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), who used to head the CASS Institute of Economics.