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Global Trade Prospects Dim, Hopes Pinned for G20 Summit

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The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Monday forecast a 9-percent decline in global trade this year, and many are hoping that the upcoming G20 summit would usher in a change.

Contraction for developed countries will be particularly severe with their exports falling by 10 percent this year, according to a WTO annual global trade assessment report.

In developing countries, which are far more dependent on trade for growth, exports will shrink by some 2 to 3 percent in 2009, WTO economists said in the report.

The WTO warned against protectionism which will eat on worldwide efforts to save the economy and prolong the current difficult scenario.

"Trade can be a potent tool in lifting the world from these economic doldrums," WTO Director-general Pascal Lamy said in a statement.

"In London G20 leaders will have a unique opportunity to unite in moving from pledges to action and refrain from any further protectionist measure which will render global recovery efforts less effective," Lamy said, referring to the upcoming Group of 20 summit scheduled for early April.

Low employment rate, stagnant growth and rising social problems brought about by economic recessions are now engaging most of the energies of the world's governments.

In a bold plan to save its economy, the US government on Monday unveiled a detailed rescue plan to cleanse bad bank assets that have frozen up lending and fueled the recession.

The Treasury said the three-part program will provide financing through the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) to help public-private investment partnerships buy up to US$1 trillion in distressed loans and securities.

At the core of the financing package will be US$75 billion to US$100 billion in capital from the financial bailout package, which was known as the TARP, or the Troubled Assets Relief Program, along with the share provided by private investors.

The program will generate US$500 billion in purchasing power to buy legacy assets with the potential to expand to US$1 trillion over time, said the Treasury in a statement.

US stocks staged the strongest rally this year on Monday as the market was boosted by the plan. S&P 500 indexes jumped more than 7 percent, while Dow surged nearly 500 points.

On the upcoming G20 summit, British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said that the main purpose of the summit is to bring world leaders together to coordinate policies in deal with the current global economic crisis.

In meeting with a group of journalists from G20 countries at 10 Downing Street, the prime minister said "first of all, we've got to deal with the reconstruction of our banking and financial system. And I believe that we will sure that the world can come together to agree common rules for the future.

"Second, we've got to ensure that the global economy can grow over the next period of time, and obviously we want a return to high level of trade, so we want to do something.

"Thirdly, we would want to help the poorest countries and help emerging market countries that they've got their own problems. We will be concerned about the rise of the poverty and the number of countries, and what we can do about that.

"And fourth, we want to restructure our international institutions for the future. So, institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank that were built for the 1940s, we've got to adapt them to the new need of 2009," including some changes in IMF quotas for developing countries.

Answering the question on anti-protectionism, Brown said "protectionism can become the word to ruin."

"So, I think, what we'll be anxious to do at the G20 is to ensure that we have a proper monitoring mechanism so that we can deal with problems whether there is protectionism when they arrive, but I think also we want to ensure that we can expend trade around the world," he added.

(Xinhua News Agency March 24, 2009)