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Manufacturing Figures Ease Fears of Slowdown

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However, Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said he believed the rebound was largely due to seasonal factors.

Historically, the PMI tended to rise month-on-month from August to September, after declining from May to July.

"Without seasonal factors, the rebound is quite weak and should not be regarded as a signal for economic recovery," Lu said.

Despite the improved PMI statistics, most economists believe China's economic growth will continue to slow in the coming months.

"We expect gross domestic product (GDP) growth to slow further, bottoming at 8 to 8.5 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter as the impact of the property tightening becomes more apparent and export growth slows," said Wang Tao, head of China Economic Research at UBS Securities.

"But the new investment programs announced this year will help push up investment and GDP growth from the first quarter of 2011, and we expect the growth to be 9.5 to 10 percent for the whole year," Wang added.

(China Daily September 2, 2010)

 

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