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Hard Choices for China's Investors

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The Shanghai Composite Index has declined 17 percent this year, the world's second-worst performer among the 93 gauges tracked by Bloomberg. It's happened on concern the government will keep tightening monetary policy to contain inflation and avert asset bubbles. "Chinese stocks would be their first choice for investment because they may remain cautious about the property market in the short term," said Shi Lei, a Beijing-based analyst at Bank of China Ltd, the biggest foreign currency trader. "The fixed deposit would be their last choice."

But Zhang Qi, an analyst at Haitong Securities, said the capital diverted from the property market was unlikely to alter the near-term weak momentum of the stock market. "We do expect a certain amount of capital to flow into the stock market but the impact is not going to be strong enough to change the current weak trend in the market," he said.

However, logistics company owner Hu Jielin says Chinese equities are still the best investment choice. He spent 9 million yuan buying apartments in Shanghai, where average home prices have risen threefold in the past five years, according to data from Shanghai Uwin Real Estate Information Services Co and eHomeday.com.

Hu, 33, said he would not buy more property given the government's curbs. Instead, he plans to double his stock investments in the next six months to 3 million yuan.

"Property prices are probably going to take a breather with the current tightening," said Hu. "Currently stocks look the best bet."

For Pan Weiting, equities also trump home ownership for now. She doesn't plan to resume her search for an apartment in Shanghai's eastern Pudong district until prices decline by 20 percent.

"It's always good to own the roof over your head but you've got to be able to afford it. For now, it's out of my reach," she said.

(China Daily May 17, 2010)

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