One of the main topics of discussion at last week's 17th Beijing International Book Fair was not whether the printed book was dead - for some that was a given - but whether publishers might be about to die with it.

Among the stands of the world's publishing elite at the city's exhibition center, many believed the answer to that question might come from China itself.

The desire to read books digitally on Apple iPads, Amazon Kindles or devices made in China such as Founder or Hanvon, is perhaps greater in China, where gadgets are adored, than any other market except the United States.

China's digital publishing industry reached 79.9 billion yuan in 2009, up 50 percent on the previous year, according to the General Administration of Press and Publication (GAPP).

Many of the world's publishers believe what happens in China could alter the axis of the global publishing industry and condemn what we now know as the paper book to history.

The move to digital transforms the business model of publishing and who gets what slice of the cake.

Publishers fear they could become marginalized or cut out of the process altogether as the new operators in the market - those providing the platforms - want to become content providers themselves and sign their own deals with authors.

Stephen Luk, managing director and general manager of The Commercial Press, the leading Hong Kong educational publisher, said the very survival of publishers is at stake.

"In China, there is a need to work out between the publishers and the software, hardware and telephone companies what the share will be. If it is not equitable the publishers could die," he said.

"There is no established business model in the digital era yet."

The Commercial Press, which was founded in 1897 and is part of Sino United Publishing, has been no slouch in the digital publishing world. It has digitized much of its content and it has recently agreed a deal to have Apple applications for 10 of its books.

"We essentially have to be led by the market and the development of the technology. There is no point doing things ahead of the technology because you don't know how it will work out and it might be futile."

One concern publishers have in China is piracy. Already on many street corners, forged copies of many titles of paper books are sold for a fraction of their normal retail price.

What scares publishers is that ripping off digital books is potentially easier and they don't have to be sold on street stalls but could be sold in any part of the world in an instant.

Anthony Lau, vice-president and director of global marketing for Wiley, the leading international scientific and medical publisher, said it is a concern publishers have.

"With digital piracy people can sell very much to any part of the world. It is a big challenge for a lot of publishers in China but the big point is that piracy is everywhere", he said.

Li Fangli, deputy director of the National Copyright Trade Center Office, which provides an advisory service on copyright issues and is part of Renmin University of China, confirms it is an issue.

"Yes it is. In a lot of countries in the world the situation is the same but in China the situation is better than before. The government is doing a lot of work in this area and also companies are researching in technology to protect their copyrights," she said.

Liu Binjie, minister of General Administration of Press and Publication acknowledged the significance of digital publishing in China.

"Now the main business of large international publishing and media groups has blended into the Internet. Revenues of digital products and services have been taking a more and more important part of total revenues and the situation in China is the same," he said.

Of the 79.94 billion yuan revenue of digital publishing industry in China, much is still from online gaming, which makes up 25.62 billion yuan, online advertising another 20.61 billion yuan and mobile phone content 31.4 billion yuan. Electronic books account for just 1.46 billion yuan of the market or 1.83 percent.

Scarlet He, executive general manager of Founder Apabi Technology Ltd, the leading China provider of digital publishing software, said it was too easy to overplay the significance of e-books in the China publishing market.

The company was launched in 2001 and works with both China and international publishers in helping them securely digitize their content.

"Over the last 10 years publishers have been asking me the same question as to whether digital will replace traditional publishing," she said.

"Many readers still enjoy reading the a paper version, although research work is certainly easier if you use online data bases."

"When I myself want to research something I go online but if I am reading a novel I still prefer a book."

Although the Founder group produces its own hardware device for consumers to read on, Founder Apabi has been particularly successful in developing security systems to fend off piracy. This prevents anyone e-mailing or putting content on flash memory sticks to give away to others.

"I think the more high end digital publishing goes, the more features you provide, in terms of content such as graphics, the more difficult it will be for those attempting piracy," added He.

Wang Hanhua, president of Joyo.com, the China subsidiary of Amazon, which produces the Kindle, said one of the barriers to growth of digital publishing in China was that many publishing firms have not bought rights for digital copyright.

"We definitely want to sell Kindle in China but it is useless to only introduce hardware. Many publishing firms don't have copyrights for digital publication and the rampant piracy is also a big concern, " he said.

Some publishers remain skeptical about the digital era.

Fu Yubo, deputy chief editor of Publishing House of the Electronics Industry, a Beijing-based technical publisher, said publishing was about content and not the medium with which it was delivered.

The company has published some of its content digitally, mainly through mobile phones.

"I don't see the likes of Kindle being competition. I see the competition as being other content providers. I think these companies that produce the devices will have a very short life cycle. I think the content providers will find a way eventually of doing all this themselves," he said.

He at Founder insisted companies like hers were not about to muscle in on the publishing industry.

"I think some publishers think this way. We are not publishers, however. They are still the content providers. We don't want to become publishers ourselves. We are technology-service providers. We don't sign contracts with writers," she said.

"The publisher decides what kind of book they want to publish. They decide the price. They decide the marketing strategy. We just provide the services to them. They decide everything. We just follow them," she said.

Stephen Bourne, chief executive of Cambridge University Press, which has the biggest backlist of any publisher in the world with 36,000 titles, said some of the major Internet players have tried to become publishers but haven't succeeded so far.

He is one major publisher who believes the physical book has a limited shelf life and could be gone within 50 years.

"You have to remember there are no books on the Starship Enterprise, " he said.

Whether the 23rd century world of Star Trek is any guide, he believes that in just 10 years time some 65 to 70 percent of the market will be digital.

"I think what we are seeing is the biggest thing since the invention of moveable type by Gutenberg in the 15th Century."

Even those who are not impressed by the interlopers entering the market concede it is changing the industry.

Fu at Publishing House of the Electronics Industry said digital technology enables publishers to print very short runs and still make money.

"If you produce a printed book, you have to produce 2,000 or 3,000 copies to make money. With digital you could just produce one or two," she said.

She adds that digital still has its limitations, particularly in searching for content.

"It can be difficult to scroll down on a device, whereas a book you can just open and find what you want quite easily," she said.

Some believe such issues will be sorted out by technological developments. Bourne at the CUP said the current devices on the market such as Kindle, which is mainly a plain text reader, and even the iPad, which some complain is too heavy, have their limitations.

"We are not quite there yet. I think there will soon be a new product that comes on the market that will be the major breakthrough and change everything forever. I don't think we will have to wait very long," he said.

(China Daily September 6, 2010)